Shortly before the 2016 presidential primaries began, the influential conservative outlet the National Review devoted an entire edition of its biweekly magazine to making the ideological case “...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-polls-very-conservative-voters-2016-2024/
In 2016, when then-Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio was asked a question about Donald Trump’s complaints of a rigged election in Iowa, the Florida senator went to great lengths to ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2024-republican-reaction-trump-indictment/
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): If you know one thing about FiveThirtyEight it’s probably ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-was-the-most-important-election-of-the-past-75-years/
There’s been a recent flurry of studies and analyses that take a deeper look at the results of the 2020 election. These examinations don’t contradict our early interpretation of the results f...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/american-politics-now-has-two-big-racial-divides/
In the fall of 2015, I was having drinks in Washington with a colleague at the time, now-MSNBC host Joy Reid. (I was working at NBC News.) Donald Trump was leading in the polls of the 2016 Republ...
We may have seen it coming, but now we know for sure: The coronavirus pandemic made the 2020 election look different from any other election in recent memory. Due to the massive expansion of mail...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-absentee-voting-looked-like-in-all-50-states/
From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in eve...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-did-all-the-bellwether-counties-go/
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week President Trump’s refusal to accept the outcome of the election has sown distrust in the election, especially among Repu...
To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, President Trump still has a cha...
Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent relatively little time there and lost both s...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/
The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again lo...
According to our forecast, Democrats have a 72 percent chance of winning a trifecta — that is, controlling the presidency, the House and the Senate. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight P...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-why-bidens-lead-is-different/
We’re in the final stretch of the campaign, with just 15 days to go until the election. Indeed, “the election” is something of a misnomer, since early or mail voting is already underway in ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/
This is the fifth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. Wisconsin is proof that politicos have short memories. In 2004, Democratic pre...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-was-never-a-safe-blue-state/
If you ask Americans whether they trust the polls, many seem unable to let go of what happened in 2016. Polls taken since then have generally found that a majority of Americans have at least some...
Earlier this week, I was working on an article that claimed Joe Biden had better results in state polls than in national polls. Then on Wednesday, the inevitable happened. Biden had some excellen...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/
This is the fourth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 202...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvania-could-decide-the-2020-election/
This is the third in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. In the fabled “blue wall” — the collection of historically Democratic st...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/
In the closing days of the 2018 midterms campaign, with the economy on a historic run, President Trump tried to focus Americans’ attention on a caravan of Central American migrants heading towa...
After a crowded and lengthy contest for the Democratic presidential nomination, the party fell in line on Super Tuesday, effectively choosing Joe Biden as the best nominee for the 2020 election. ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-clintons-loss-paved-the-way-for-biden/