In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we delve into some of the underlying dynamics in the Personal Income and Consumption report. We believe much of the robust consumer spending of recen...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/5/2/three-on-thursday---excess-savings-extinguished
IMPLICATIONS: The trade deficit in goods and services shrank slightly to $69.4 billion in March as imports declined more than exports. However, we prefer to focus on the total volume of tra...
No shortage of things to discuss after today’s Fed statement and subsequent press conference. While the Fed did not cut rates – and nobody expected them to – today’s focus was on ho...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/5/1/a-lack-of-confidence
IMPLICATIONS: After a brief one-month stint above 50, the ISM Manufacturing index missed consensus expectations and fell to 49.2 in April. Activity in the US manufacturing sector has now ...
Austrian Economics argues that growth comes from innovation and entrepreneurship, with “the market” directing resources to areas of the economy that provide the greatest returns. It also ob...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/29/the-worst-malinvestment
IMPLICATIONS: Incomes and spending rose notably in March, but unfortunately for the Fed, inflation also continues to tick higher. PCE prices – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure ...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/26/personal-income-rose-0.5percent-in-march
In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we delve into the current state of student loan debt in the United States—a subject that has risen to the forefront of national politica...
IMPLICATIONS: The Fed is not going to like today’s report on GDP. Yes, real GDP growth came in surprisingly slow in the first quarter, growing at a lukewarm 1.6% annual rate versus a c...
IMPLICATIONS: Durable goods orders rose a healthy 2.6% in March, with gains heavily concentrated around the typically volatile transportation sector. The largest gain was commercial aircr...
IMPLICATIONS: New home sales came in stronger than expected in March, driven by broad-based gains as more inventories give buyers a greater number of options to choose from. Notably, the 8....
The economy continued to grow in the first quarter at what we estimate is a 2.6% annual rate. That’s a slowdown from the 3.1% rate in 2023, but still good compared to the past couple of decad...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/22/continued-growth-in-q1
In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we explore the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which became the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge starting in 2000. ...
IMPLICATIONS: Existing home sales took a widely expected breather in March following the largest monthly gain in a year in February. While sales activity has finally bottomed it looks like ...
IMPLICATIONS: Industrial production continued to rebound in March, rising for a second month due to broad-based gains. The manufacturing sector was the main source of strength in today’s ...
IMPLICATIONS: Housing starts posted the largest monthly decline in March since the worst of the COVID pandemic, coming in well short of consensus expectations. However, this follows a sur...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/16/housing-starts-declined-14.7percent-in-march
IMPLICATIONS: Retail sales beat expectations in March, rising 0.7% for the month versus a consensus expected gain of 0.4%, while previous months were revised higher. Factoring these in, r...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/15/retail-sales-rose-0.7percent-in-march
Many, us included, see parallels between today’s big issues and those of the 1960s and 1970s. Mistakes in both geopolitical and fiscal policies compound overtime, often leading to more mistak...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/15/elections-matter
IMPLICATIONS: Do you hear that sound? It’s the door creaking closed on the chances for a June rate cut. While the producer price index rose a modest 0.2% in March, that comes on the ba...
In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we look at the Federal Reserve’s financials through year-end 2023. Back in 2008, the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) embarked on a novel...
IMPLICATIONS: Where is the evidence that monetary policy is tight? Consumer prices rose 0.4% in March, pushing the twelve-month comparison up to 3.5%. At this point it looks clear tha...