Book review: Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World, by Tom Chivers. Many have attempted to persuade the world to embrace a Bayesian worldview, but none have succeed...
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/05/26/everything-is-predictable/
Book review: Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World, by Nick Bostrom. Bostrom’s previous book, Superintelligence, triggered expressions of concern. In his latest work, he describes his...
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/04/23/deep-utopia/
I’ve been dedicating a fair amount of my time recently to investigating whole brain emulation (WBE). As computational power continues to grow, the feasibility of emulating a human brain at a re...
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/04/05/exploring-whole-brain-emulation/
Back in 2008, I criticized the book Predictocracy for proposing prediction markets whose contracts would be resolved without reference to ground truth. Recently, Srinivasan, Karger, and Chen (SKC...
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/03/02/self-resolving-prediction-markets/
Manifold Markets is a prediction market platform where I’ve been trading since September. This post will compare it to other prediction markets that I’ve used. Play Money The most important f...
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/02/01/manifold-markets/
Book review: A Theory of Everyone – The New Science of Who We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We’re Going Energy, culture and a better future for everyone, by Michael Muthukrishna. I found th...
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/01/12/a-theory-of-everyone/
Book review: Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity, by Daniel Deudney. Dark Skies is an unusually good and bad book. Good in the sense that 95% of the bo...
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/12/28/dark-skies/
Book review: The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder, by Peter Zeihan. Are you looking for an entertaining set of geopolitical foreca...
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/12/11/the-accidental-superpower/
I expect that within a decade, AI will be able to do 90% of current human jobs. I don’t mean that 90% of humans will be obsolete. I mean that the average worker could delegate 90% of
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/11/16/when-will-ais-develop-long-term-planning/
Disagreements related to what we value seem to explain maybe 10% of the disagreements over AI safety. This post will try to explain how I think about which values I care about perpetuating to the...