Distressed Volatility | Market And Economic Analysis

Futures down, US dollar up... U.S Dollar Index is at 80-81 resistance, will house vote catalyst allow USD to pierce through that level? US Dollar Chart (Source: Barchart.com) It's interesting tha...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/10/us-dollar-index-at-80-resistance.html

I've been watching the exchange traded notes of General Motors (hgm, xgm, gms) get smoked during the last month. What's interesting is that these debt securities have lost more value than the com...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/10/gm-exchange-traded-notes-being-dumped.html

I knew there were treasury interest rate swaps, but treasury credit default swaps? You've heard in the news that credit default swap spreads (ability to swap defaulted debt securities w/ a counte...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/10-year-treasury-default-swaps-spike.html

I just saw the movie I.O.U.S.A, where the film follows former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker as he travels the country explaining America's unsustainable fiscal policies. With the US Gov n...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/iousa-movie-us-is-going-broke-fiscal.html

Chart Source: Stockcharts.com I wanted to point out that I saw a large amount of out of the money GM calls traded yesterday (9/25/08) at the OCT $15, and NOV $15 Strike. The stock closed at $10.0...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/gm-options-update-out-of-money-call.html

With all of this bail out news on Wall Street, I'm wondering how all of it affects the consumer. Will the consumer remain strong during this financial crisis? All of this mortgage bailout talk di...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/will-leveraged-consumer-remain.html

It looks like the Government is listening to Bill Gross, the manager of the biggest bond fund in the nation ($50 Billion Pimco Total Return Fund PTTAX). He stated earlier in his September investm...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/government-is-listening-to-bill-gross.html

I wrote about the DXD put option open interest configuration last night when I saw there was a HUGE chunk of puts open at the 67 out of the money strike. Also overnight Dow futures were up 119 so...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/interesting-ultrashort-dow-30-etf-dxd.html

Wow all of the banks are scrambling to merge to save themselves from this disaster!. This is even happening in the UK (Lloyds to buy HBOS in $50 billion deal). During the past few days I saw that...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/morgan-stanley-implied-volatility.html

It's not great to hear the words "nationalization of AIG". Both the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P are now below the July '08 lows, at 10,690 (DJIX), and 1,172 (SPX). From the looks of the charts ...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/are-we-seeing-capitulation-in-dow-s.html

The Lehman news is definitely widening spreads in the Credit Default Swap Market. I looked at the Liquid 50 Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index Futures chart at cbot.com. They are priced i...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/credit-default-swap-index-abx-cmbx.html

Well the overnight futures opened and at 8:00, according to insidefutures.com, The S&P Overnight Futures are at -36.6, and the Dow Jones Industrials Overnight Futures are at -286. Here are the 90...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/lehman-disaster-is-sending-index.html

I can't stop posting about the indices because the market is at an inflection point of either a surprise rally or a HUGE move to the downside. I'm going to look at the long term trend and near te...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/long-term-dow-s-technicals-near-term.html

This is a historical analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Index during years 2000 and 2005. These were taken from a pdf I made that compared news stories from both years when the Dow Jones Indust...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/dow-jones-industrial-index-analysis.html

Due to the market chaos there seems to be a flight to quality in the treasuries. Now traders are even talking about a possible rate cut with commodities coming down, dropping the commodity inflat...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/us-treasuries-abx-cmbx-cds-indices-tips.html

It looks like the Government is finally going subsidize the GSE's (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and possibly lend $50B to GM. Local banking institutions keep going under and oil prices have been f...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/us-economic-update-pt-1-economic-data.html

It's interesting that the capital markets on Friday predicted the severity of Hurricane Gustav better than most of the weather stations who were predicting the next Katrina. Oil and natural gas p...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/09/fridays-energy-price-action-predicted.html

I'm looking at Chesapeake Energy again for a quick trade to the $50 area. From their website, they are the 3rd largest producer of natural gas in the US, and 2nd among independents. They own inte...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/08/chesapeake-energy-lots-of-call-volume.html

Lehman is seeing some strength and interesting options activity after last week when the South Korean Development Bank said buying Lehman was a possibility but the price offered was too high. Thi...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/08/lehman-brothers-in-play-and-financials.html

I'm looking at Yahoo again, it popped higher along with the overall market on Friday. Here's a look at the chart on Tuesday's set up and Friday's chart. Tuesday (8/19/08) Friday (8/22/08) We're f...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/08/yahoo-future-tv-convergence-technicals.html

GM 1 Year Chart (BigCharts.com) I saw a lot of bullish call buying in the GM options On Monday morning (8/11/08, with oil hitting fresh new lows and right before Rick Wagoner, chairman and CEO ca...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/08/falling-oil-call-option-volume-gm.html

WCI Communities, the award winning builder of retirement and golf communities consisting of homes and condos in high rise towers mainly in Florida and the North East, wasn't really relaxing in th...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/08/wci-communities-conspiracy-was.html

I used to be bullish on the Canadian Dollar via the $CAD/$USD trade back when it was trading around 0.82 when oil corrected to $49, and natural gas to $6 in January 2007. Canada is a huge commodi...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/07/case-for-usdcad-trade-canadian-energy.html

I've decided to look at Yahoo again. I was first interested in this company when it it broke the $20 level back in January of this year right before the Feb 1st $31 buyout offer by Microsoft.. In...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/07/yahoo-buyout-valuation-pegged-33-37.html

First of all, how about this market? The Government comes in and saves Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and also seizes IndyMac Bancorp Inc after a bank run (Fed offers to lend to mortgage companies, T...

http://distressedvolatility.com/2008/07/general-motors-exchange-traded-notes.html