During the 2010s, Jim Bullard was probably my favorite Federal Reserve bank president. David Beckworth has an interview with Bullard, in which he makes a number of insightful observations. As usu...
Back in 2010, I predicted that India would have the world’s largest economy (in PPP terms) within 100 years. A few months later, I moved up the predicted date to 2081. Based on this graph, I’...
This tweet caught my eye: If Biden had been nominated, I guarantee that this example would have been cited by anti-EMH types. “Markets were giving a 20% chance that someone else would be nomina...
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/markets-are-smarter-than-you-think/
That’s my prediction for the next 4 years. Consider two definitions of Maoism: 1. Radical egalitarianism. Public shaming and forced apologies when people fail to spout obvious nonsense like, �...
1. Here’s Janan Ganesh: Because, in Britain, someone who is nationalist in general will be anti-EU in particular, the Anglo-American intelligentsia tends to
Remember the “Nixon to China” meme? The basic idea is that under our system of governance, major shifts in policy require buy-in from the faction that is traditionally hostile to the idea. Th...
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/only-trump-can-make-america-european/
I’m certainly no Nostradamus, having incorrectly forecast both the 2016 and 2020 elections. But it seems to me that I have made a number of more general claims that are looking increasingly pla...
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/now-do-you-see-the-problem/
Trump has done so many awful things that it’s hard to single out any one example. But for my money, picking Vance as his VP is his single worst decision. Vance is my least favorite US senator. ...
On September 5, 1975, Lynette “Squeaky” Fromme attempted to assassinate Gerald Ford, but was stopped by a Secret service agent as she was pulling the trigger. On September 22, 1975, Sara Jane...
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/memories-of-the-ford-administration/
Tyler Cowen directed me to a Greg Mankiw essay on inflation: And as a textbook author, I sometimes get the suggestion that the whole discussion of the Phillips curve be removed from my books on t...
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/are-ad-shocks-hard-to-identify/