TheMoneyIllusion

I recently discussed the current German recession, which is accompanied by a very strong labor market. In a recent post, Tyler Cowen provides a summary of Czechia’s recent recession, which show...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/why-do-you-care-about-recessions/

In the old days, the threat of bonds being defaulted on made the bonds less attractive to investors. Now we live in the land of Oz, and default threats make investors rush to buy the bonds. Here�...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/were-not-in-kansas-any-longer/

This Matt Yglesias tweet understates the similarities: In Turkey, the liberals win both the prosperous coastal cities and the oppressed minority groups (the Kurds in the southeast.) The authorita...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/its-the-same-everywhere/

Back in August and September 2022, the German unemployment rate was only 5.5%. Then Germany plunged into recession. Here’s Bloomberg: Germany suffered its first recession since the start of pan...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/germany-is-in-recession/

Over the past year, I’ve read one pundit after another offer a recession prediction. I’m not impressed. It’s not that these predictions are necessarily incorrect—a recession might well oc...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/boring-recession-calls/

1. Here’s Bloomberg: Knee-jerk retaliation runs the risk of violating WTO rules and exposing G-7 members to charges of hypocrisy. While that may not faze US leaders, they should understand that...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/new-articles/

Anti-Chinese bigotry seems to get worse each year. The leading contender for the GOP presidential nomination mocks people with Chinese names. Biden’s Washington is increasingly hysterical about...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/we-dont-hate-the-chinese-people/

Bill Dudley has an excellent column in Bloomberg: More importantly, the Fed has yet to adequately recognize two important ways monetary policy contributed to the crisis. First, by committing to k...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/bill-dudley-on-monetary-policy-lessons/

The political betting markets get wackier each day: Where to start? Consider that the following statements are all true: 1. Trump is the likely GOP nominee. 2. Biden is the likely Democratic nomi...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/fun-with-conditional-probabilities/

Most conservative intellectuals rejected Trump long ago. The few that remained are now jumping ship. Here’s Andrew McCarthy of the National Review: I am as certain as I am writing this that Don...

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/the-conservative-intellectual-bubble/