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- Feed Preview US/Global Economics Archives - Angry Bear
Do we need to change the way we grow things, or change the way we eat?
by Lloyd Alter Carbon Upfront! The Toronto Star leads today with a story, “Ripe for a challenge,” in which climate change reporter Kate Allen describes attempts to grow strawberries indoors i...
Why Isn’t The USA in a recession ?
Oddly I am back here posting. Even more oddly I am posting on the topic I am paid to address. I start by noting two things. About one year ago, many macroeconomic forecasters predicted that a rec...
New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for April 22 – 26
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Not much churn in the short leading or coincident timeframes this week. But one of the long le...
Another strong personal income and spending report, but beware the uptick in inflation
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow. This is in large part because the big question this year ...
Leading indicators in the Q1 GDP report are mixed
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Most of the commentary you will read about Q1 GDP that was released this morning will be about the core coincident components. For that I will simply ...
Jobless claims continue their snooze-fest
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Initial and continuing claims continued their snooze-fest this week. Initial claims declined -5,000 to 207,000, continuing their nearly 3 month long r...
In addition to housing, manufacturing is range-bound as well
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog First off, let me reiterate that my focus this year is on manufacturing and construction. That’s because these are the two sectors the waxing and wa...
Manipulating Supply Chains and Manufacturing, for Corporate Influence and Profit . . . Redux
It is getting serious now. Kroger is willing to sell off more stores in order to consolidate with Albertsons. The one thing we keep on seeing is the manipulation of supply chain due to circumstan...
It’s a start
In many capitalist European countries, college students do not have to pay tuition fees out of their own pockets. Here in America, most students have to fund their own college costs, which for ma...
https://angrybearblog.com/2024/04/its-a-start#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=its-a-start
The range-bound new home sales market continues
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog As per my usual caveat, while new home sales are the most leading of the housing construction metrics, they are noisy and heavily revised. That was...
Real median wage and income growth through March continued the recent increasing trend
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog This is an update of some information I last posted several months ago. Real median household income is one of the best measures of average Americans�...
Why Unlimited Wealth Is an Unassailable Advantage
by Steve Roth Wealth Economics Imagine a five-player poker game. Assume all the players have equal skill, so the flows across the table over the course of the game are just a random walk. “It�...
New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for April 15 – 19 2024
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog I neglected to put this up Saturday, so here it is now. My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There continues to be a fair amount o...
The bifurcation of the new vs. existing home markets continues
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog The bifurcation of the new vs. existing home markets continued in March, per the report on existing home sales and prices yesterday. Remember that, unl...
Initial jobless claim Zzzzzzzzzz . . . .
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog For the last 8 months, initial and continuing claims have been remarkably consistent. Initial claims have varied between 194,000 and 228,000, and conti...
Industrial production for March is positive, but the overall trend remains flat
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Industrial production, one of the premier series the NBER has historically used to declare recessions vs. expansions, has faded in importance since Chi...
Can local governments make it a crime to sleep outside if no inside space is available?
by Clare Pastore The Conversation A small city in Oregon with one homeless shelter is enforcing a local anti-camping law. Enforcing it against people sleeping in public using a blanket or any o...
Simultaneous declines in housing permits, starts, and units...on in March suggests seasonality glitch, not a change in trend
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog There was a big decline in housing starts last month, and a smaller but significant decline in permits. Whether that signifies a change in trend or ju...
Personal Income and Personal Saving Make More than 40% of Households’ Property Income…Invisible. Think Total Return.
by Steve Roth Wealth Economics Matthew Klein and Joey Politano have been singularly responsible in their discussions of “excess saving” in the covid era — not least by always putting th...
Real retail sales rebound, forecast a continued “soft landing” for jobs growth
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog As per usual, real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it gives so much information about the consumer, and since consumption leads ...
Tesla and the law of gravity
OK, Tesla isn’t Bitcoin and it isn’t Trump’s Pravda Social, but: “Tesla announced to Gigafactory Texas employees that it will shorten Cybertruck production shift amid rumors that it is pr...
59% of People Retaining Medicaid Coverage Were Renewed Through Ex Parte Processes
Medicaid Renewals Of the people retaining Medicaid Coverage as of April 11, 2024 . . . Fifty-nine percent were renewed on an ex parte basis while 41% were renewed through a renewal form, though r...
Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker
by KFF Pulled together data from KFF to get an idea of what is happening with US healthcare. Big issue is people do not know. Another issue is state’s resistance to enrolling people. Hope this ...
Ripping Off College Students’ Economic Future Redux
Originally, I put this into print November 2013. I took from many sources to complete it. I think it meshes well and still stands the test of time. The student loan issues and debt are still in e...
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida addresses Congress . . .
Prof. Heather Cox Richardson Letters from an American When Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida addressed a joint meeting of Congress today, he tried to remind lawmakers of who Americans are. �...
New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators April 8 – 12 2024
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Long Lead Indicator Remain Unchanged. Short Lead Indicators show Improvement. Coincidental Ind...
Manipulating Supply Chains and Manufacturing, for Corporate Influence and Profit
The one thing we keep on seeing is the manipulation of supply chain by circumstance to achive manufacturing shortfall, and influence to maximize profits. Much of what we have and are experiencing...
Real average wages and aggregate payrolls signal continued growth
– by New Deal democrat Keep in mind NDd only talks about Real Average Wages in which he does not include supervisor wages or increases. In this regard, readers get a much better perspective o...
The actual cost of college in America
I’m seeing the usual hyperventilating about college tuition. Look, there’s a lot of competition, particularly among the more competitive universities, to post exorbitant sticker prices for tu...
March consumer price inflation was still mainly about the dynamics of shelter and gas prices
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog New Deal democrat has been on top of the discussions of shelter and/or gasoline prices in February and also in January. He has been on top of these dis...
Milei and dollarization
I try not to blog about stuff I don’t know much about, but sometimes I can’t help myself. This is one of those times, so caveat lector. This could be way off base. Do not quote this to ...
Open Thread, April 12 2024 Inflation Increases – Look to Gasoline and Shelter
Consumer Price Index – March 2024 (bls.gov) “The BLS index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexescontributed over half of the monthly increase i...
March CPI: Should We Be Worried?
by Dean Baker Center for Economic and Policy Research The inflation hawks took March’s CPI as cause for celebration, inflation may not be dead yet. There is no doubt that it was a disappointing...
How much should a life-saving drug cost?
My former chairman used to tell the story of when he was a resident on rounds in the 1950s, he would hear a pounding sound in some of the patient rooms. When he looked in to discover the source, ...
Initial claims continue to be rangebound, and a positive for the near term forecast
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog The post Initial claims continue to be rangebound, and a positive for the near term forecast appeared first on Angry Bear .
TSMC to begin Pilot Production Operations by mid-April 2024
More semiconductor news. Leading off, TSMC plant delays in Arizona are disappearing. In spite of earlier delays, the Arizona TSMC plant is now expected to be operational by end of 2024. Pilot Pro...
Building and Expanding semiconductor facilities
Biden is at it again. This time with Intel in AZ. With all the issues with passing a budget since earlier last year, I wonder how Biden and the Dems got this out of Congress. Must be some pretty ...
Travelin’ man: Weekly Indicators for April 1 – 5 2024 at Seeking Alpha
– by New Deal democrat I neglected to post this over the weekend, so I will post it now…. Weekly Indicators: The Coincident Indicators Say ‘Soft Landing Is Here.’ – Long Leading Indica...
Other Taxes on the Rich for Social Security? The Wrong Approach
I touched on a commentary at another site where the commentary was about healthcare. The sites author was advocating for the increase of the Social Security cap only on high income earners. There...
Thoughts while visiting the US
Some thoughts: There are many mentions in this commentary by David, I find true and factual. Much of my time in Europe and Asia was working, eating, and traveling with the residents of these coun...
Small scale carbon capture
EVs are certainly proliferating, not only here in East Providence but all over the planet. However, Hertz’ retreat from the rental market demonstrates the challenges facing companies with large...
Scenes from the robust March jobs report
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog New Deal democrat has been writing and featured at Angry Bear for years now. His economic outlooks have been accurate with few exceptions. As always th...
Sunday Morning News Chatter – Sports, EVs, and Unions
An older salesman (Lou Haer) used to call on me at Oscar Mayer when I was buying all of OM’s packaging and labels. We would talk and have lunch. Visited him at his home in the suburbs of Chicag...
Joe Biden’s roll out of a new student loan forgiveness plan
The Biden administration will soon roll out a new student loan forgiveness proposal that could impact millions of Americans. For years, Joe Biden has been against Student Loan forgiveness. No...
March jobs report: almost uniformly positive, making a “soft landing” the default 2024 scenario
In sum, this month’s report was very much consistent with a “soft landing” scenario, which must be regarded as the default outcome at this point. Read-on for the details . . . – by New De...
Open Thread April 5 2024 Guide to electric car misinformation
It’s more environmentally harmful to make an electric car than a gas car. “A guide to electric car misinformation (part 2),” HEATED. The post Open Thread April 5 2024 Guide to electric ca...
Freedom Echoing: A legislative fix for health care?
by Kip Sullivan JD This is a long one covering managed care and value-based care healthcare in Minnesota. The topic being why it hasn’t worked. It is worth the read. Angry Bear has covered Kip�...
Decline in continuing claims, stability in initial claims suggest downward pressure on the unemployment rate
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Initial claims in the last week rose 9,000 to 221,000, while the four week moving average increased 2,750 to 214,250. With the usual one week lag, con...
About grocery inflation
Kevin Drum has a timely post on grocery inflation. Overall, it’s at 1% now. “Why do so many people still think inflation is high? It’s because they don’t respond to averages. They respond...
Does consumer sentiment correlate with the real economy?
– by New Deal democrat “it should be no surprise that Biden’s poll numbers have recently improved.” No big economic news today, so let me update a correlation with information from las...
February JOLTS report: soft landing-ish? – except for a noisy jump in layoffs
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog The JOLTS report for February showed stabilization or slight improvement to all but one of its components, generally suggesting, well, stabilization in...
END THE TAX ON Social Security. A Good Idea?
by Dale Coberly No. It’s not. Here is why. The argument for ending the tax on Social Security benefits seems to be that “it is a tax on a tax”, double taxing, and not fair. Even the good gu...
Monthly data starts out with slightly positive news in manufacturing, slightly negative in construction
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. To repeat what I have said often recently, these are th...
Record wind and solar power generation in Germany. No foolin’.
When I think of the places on the planet that seem optimized for solar and wind power generation, I think of deserts like the Sahara and the desert Southwest in the US. And yet Germany is generat...
Climate Change Indicators: U.S. Green House Gas Emissions
Updates on Green House Gas and Climate Change. Rather than have readers flip from chart to chart on different pages, I consolidated the Green House Gas charts on one page. When it says see Figure...
New Deal Democrats Weekly Indicators March 25-29 2024
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Regional Manufacturing Declines Again After several weeks of flirting with full recovery, the remaining region...
Real personal income and spending: if last month was “Goldilocks”, this month was close to “anti-Goldilocks”
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow, because it nets out the impacts of higher interest rate...
Open Thread March 29 2024 CA Fast Food Workers get a boost in hourly wage
Starting April 1, fast-food workers in California will be paid at least $20 an hour, thanks to legislation passed last fall that raised the industry-wide minimum wage. Why? “the difference bet...
The Unknown Unknown Marx
– By Tom Walker “The Unknown Unknown Marx,” EconoSpeak Toward the end of his 1968 essay, “The Unknown Marx,” Martin Nicolaus quoted Marx’s enumeration of four barriers to production u...
Initial claims remain somnolent, while continuing claims pop slightly
– by New Deal democrat The divergence in the trends between initial and continuing claims continued this week, as the former continued their somnolent good news, while the latter had a slight...
You can’t fool Mother Nature
Back when we lived in Chapel Hill NC, we made a few trips to the Outer Banks where my wife had an uncle who built fishing boats in Buxton NC. Back then, nobody was talking about sea levels rising...
Correcting 11 Washington Post’s Charts That Are Supposed to Tell How the Economy Changed Since Covid
by Dean Baker CEPR Not much of a surprise here the 11 Washington Post’s Charts need some explaining to correct the misinterpretation of them by WaPo. The issue here is the amount of bad or fals...
A detailed look at manufacturing, and an update on freight
– by New Deal democrat As I wrote on Monday, the big question for this year is whether the recessionary effects of the Fed rate hikes have just been delayed. Or whether, because the rate hik...
Alternate Ports for Shipments
Suddenly everyone is an expert on Shipping and Supply Chain. Considering we had issues in Long Beach and Los Angeles, management did not resolve the issue, I understand they are unionized. You pa...
Is this true?
Whenever Elon Musk says a thing, I reflexively mistrust it. So when I saw a video clip of Musk making this assertion, I wanted to think I learned something about the auto industry, but then I con...
Repeat home sales price declined slightly in January; expect deceleration in the CPI measures of shelter to continue
– by New Deal democrat As I noted again yesterday, house prices lag home sales, which in turn lag mortgage rates. Yesterday we got the final February reading on sales. This morning we got the...
As mortgage rates remain rangebound, so do new home sales
– by New Deal democrat Let’s begin this post by putting why I am watching new home sales in context. The economy was kept out of recession last year, despite aggressive Fed rate hikes, in l...
The economy is actually doing great — unless you want to make a change in your life.
Liking your present situation right now? Your job, your house, your car, you can keep it and you may have to do so. Buying a new car, house, or getting a different job may be more costly and not ...
More for Them, Less for Us, Talking Taxes and Deficits
Ran across am Americans for Tax Fairness article last night. Corporation tax dodging and executive pay has both is far out of control. A significant number of major U.S. corporations are paying t...
Open Thread March 24 2024 Shorter Work Week – Is It All It Promises to Be?
A New Norm: Senators Bernie Sanders and Laphonza Butler presented an intriguing idea: making a shorter work week a national norm. The bill they introduced proposes changing the standard workwee...
Where Does Wealth Come From?
Wrong answers only: “saving” Originally Published at Wealth Economics In my last post, I tried to say precisely what the words “wealth” and “assets” mean as they’re used in this bl...
Leading Indicators Continue To Improve
New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for March 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. I look at the high frequency weekly ...
Signs of a thaw in the frozen existing homes market, but a very long way to go
– by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today, but yesterday existing home sales were released. While they have historically constituted up to 90% of the entire market, they hav...
The Lie Banks Use To Protect Late-Fee Profits
Hal Singer at Lever News wrote a commentary explaining how banks (mostly) are upset with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau capping credit card late fees at $8. One would think this covers ...
The positive streak of news from initial and continuing jobless claims continues
– by New Deal democrat Initial and continuing claims once again continued their recent good streak. Bonddad Blog Initial claims declined -2,000 to 210,000, while the four-week moving averag...
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady (as it goes?)
Interest Rate increases to fight perceived inflation or not fight perceived inflation? Big believer in the cause of much of the inflation being deliberate supply chain planning to increase prices...
“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Bonddad Blog – by New Deal democrat No economic news today, so let me take a look at the supposed killer recent GOP meme that they claim is completely unanswerable: “Are you better off tod...
Flash finding: How drug money from sick people really works
AB: I was searching for a clear, brief, and understandable explanation of how the pharma industry works in delivering pharmaceuticals to patients. This article is one of the better ones out there...
What is Wealth?
The wealth of people and the wealth of nations Originally Published at Wealth Economics If you read this blog much, you’ll find many careful definitions of terms — something that the econom...
Housing construction rebounds in February, as permits and starts are stable and rebounding
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Yesterday I wrote of how Fed rate hikes had not translated into a decline in the amount of housing under construction, and without that I did not see h...
Manufacturing and construction vs. the still-inverted yield curve
– by New Deal democrat at the Bonddad Blog Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser makes the point that the yield curve is still inverted, and has not yet eclipsed the longest previous time between...
Will AI take all the jobs?
Noah Smith has a blog post arguing that AI won’t take away all the jobs from humans. It’s a clever and well-written post that deserves your attention. Here are some money grafs: “So as AI g...
Open Thread March 17 2024, January and February were rough months for inflation
Employ America’s current corecast is for a 2.86% YoY core PCE print for February. The six-month growth rate of core PCE, which was under 2% in December, should now be over 3% in February. Cor...
Inflation and Auto Insurance
Center for Economic Development and Policy Research, CEPR Dean Baker When we hear about inflation most of us probably think of items like food, gas, and rent, but when it comes to the Consumer Pr...
Industrial and manufacturing production improve for the month, but 16+ month fading trend continues
Originally Published at The Bonddad Blog Industrial production is an indicator that has faded somewhat in importance in the modern era since China’s accession to normal trading status in 2000. ...
Good news and bad news Thursday: the bad news is real retail sales
Bonddad Blog – by New Deal democrat This morning brought us both good and bad economic news. The good news was that initial jobless claims continue very low, at 209,000, down -1,000 from las...
High school financial literacy?
I thought this might make a fun follow-up on my post on 8th grade algebra. Over at jabberwocking.com, Kevin Drum discusses a proposal to make a semester of financial literacy a high school gradua...
King Canute economics comes to Massachusetts
According to legend, King Canute tried to order the tide not to come in. Needless to say, he failed, divine rights of kings nonwithstanding. Back when we lived in North Carolina, we visited the O...
The most potent labor market indicator of all is still strongly positive
The Bonddad Blog – by New Deal democrat On Monday I examined some series from last Friday’s Household survey in the jobs report, highlighting that they more frequently than not indicated a ...
Probing the Impact of Private Equity in Healthcare
Not rewriting anything on this commentary or adding to it. Shahon Firth covers a lot of territory in his brief commentary. Probe Into Private Equity in Healthcare Launched, MedPage Today, Shannon...
February consumer inflation: the tug of war between gasoline and shelter continues
February consumer inflation: the tug of war between gasoline and shelter continues The Bonddad Blog – by New Deal democrat Last month I described the trend in consumer inflation as an ongoing...
Scenes from the February jobs report: yes, the Household Survey really was recessionary
Later this week we get a lot of interesting reports, including CPI tomorrow, retail sales on Thursday, and industrial production on Friday. In the meantime, let’s take a further look at some of...
The economics of lighting
I grew up with the admonition that you always turn off the lights if you’re the last to leave the room. Or “close the lights,” as my grandma used to say. But home lighting technology has ev...
New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators March 4 – 8 2024
Weekly Indicators for March 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Generally speaking, there is a demarcation between consume...
Biden Says Billionaires Pay an 8.2% Tax Rate. What Do Other Households Pay?
Let’s compare apples to apples here. Originally Published at Wealth Economics Uncle Joe has thrown out this 8.2% figure a couple of times, including in last night’s SOTU. Multiple folks have�...
February jobs report: Household Survey is downright recessionary and the Establishment Survey is decidedly mixed
February jobs report: the Household Survey is downright recessionary, while the Establishment Survey is decidedly mixed – by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been on wh...
Labour power as a common-pool resource
Labour power as a common-pool resource: in memory of Paul Burkett Human mental and physical capacities to work have elastic but definite natural limits. Those capacities must be continuously rest...
Initial jobless claims continue positive, suggesting good news for the tomorrow’s February unemployment rate as well
Initial jobless claims continue positive, suggesting good news for the tomorrow’s February unemployment rate as well – by New Deal democrat The most important reason I cover initial jobless...
What One Economist Wants to Hear on Thursday’s SOTU Address
Up-Dated: Dean Baker, CEPR co-founder and Senior Economist, shares what he wants to hear from the President during Thursday’s #SOTU2024. Dean Baker and CEPR hopes Joe Biden reminds the country ...
Earned Labor Income Is a Small and Weak Lever. Unearned Property Income, and Wealth, Rule
Reversing extreme wealth concentration means going after property income. Originally Published at Wealth Economics Economists and pundits have been cheered of late by the labor-share increase dur...