Today, the U.S. Air Force faces an almost-existential crisis. During the past several years, the service has been battered by the loss of its prestigious space mission to the nascent U.S. Space F...
Greetings from the North Pole! Santa here, once again giving you a sneak peek into my holiday gift list for some of the movers and shakers in the U.S. national security world. When I started work...
The U.S. military spends untold time, energy, and effort preparing for its future wars. Yet periodically, real wars intrude to shatter hypothetical concepts and show how the ever-changing interac...
http://warontherocks.com/2023/12/learning-from-real-wars-gaza-and-ukraine/
Editor’s Note: This article was written in response to our unofficial support for the Department of Defense’s innovation challenge for talent management. We want to help with this effort and ...
Editor’s Note: This article was written in response to our unofficial support for the Department of Defense’s innovation challenge for talent management. We want to help with this effort and ...
http://warontherocks.com/2023/10/the-need-to-train-data-literate-u-s-army-commanders/
Editor’s Note: This article was written in response to our unofficial support for the Department of Defense’s innovation challenge for talent management. We want to help with this effort and ...
http://warontherocks.com/2023/09/making-military-service-more-attractive-for-modern-spouses/
Every summer since 2016, we have dutifully crafted a summer vacation reading list for our loyal readers. But this year, the utterly bizarre yet somehow appealing phenomenon known as Barbenheimer ...
http://warontherocks.com/2023/08/strategic-outpost-goes-to-the-movies/
This month the Biden administration released its National Cybersecurity Strategy, ending months of speculation about its contents. The document focuses on public-private collaboration, which is u...
The all-volunteer force may finally have reached its breaking point. During the first years of the recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, many military experts worried that the constant deployments...
http://warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/
Happy holidays to all you national security nerds out there! This is red-nosed Rudolph checking in for Santa this year. The old man has asked me to share his gift list for the season with you whi...
How can the summer be ending already?? Temperatures are soaring, vacations are wrapping up, and many of you are realizing that you have only a couple of weeks left to rest and relax before the ne...
http://warontherocks.com/2022/08/strategic-outposts-seventh-annual-summer-vacation-reading-list/
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a terrible throwback to attrition warfare. Having failed in their opening salvo against Kyiv, Russian forces have settled into a grinding campaign in other parts...
http://warontherocks.com/2022/07/sabotage-and-war-in-cyberspace/
The war in Ukraine is the first major land war between two modern militaries equipped with advanced conventional weapons in decades. Its emerging lessons could fundamentally upend our understandi...
http://warontherocks.com/2022/06/the-other-big-lessons-that-the-u-s-army-should-learn-from-ukraine/
The secret services were remarkably conspicuous before the war in Ukraine. American and British agencies issued blunt assessments about Russian intentions and policymakers used intelligence to ra...
http://warontherocks.com/2022/05/intelligence-and-war-does-secrecy-still-matter/
Editor’s note: Don’t miss our comprehensive guide to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is a bad strategist. He does not understand the relationship between force and polit...
http://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putins-folly-a-case-study-of-an-inept-strategist/
President Joe Biden doesn’t have a plan for China. Or, more precisely, the Biden administration has failed to articulate its approach to grand strategy in East Asia. Before taking office, Biden...
http://warontherocks.com/2022/01/how-long-can-biden-muddle-through-on-china/
Happy Christmas to all my favorite national security nerds! Sadly, it’s been yet another “year from you-know-where” with troubles and tragedies seemingly gripping us at every corner. Even S...
President Joe Biden has committed to ending America’s forever wars and restoring diplomacy, longtime goals for advocates of a more restrained U.S. foreign policy. Yet he is reportedly pursuing ...
http://warontherocks.com/2021/12/why-restraint-in-the-real-world-encourages-digital-espionage/
Last month, our graduate students taught us an important lesson about the future of war. We examined the 1983 invasion of Grenada, in which one of us participated as a 29-year-old Ranger company ...
http://warontherocks.com/2021/11/grenada-the-evacuation-of-afghanistan-and-the-future-of-war/
The sudden fall of Afghanistan marks the very first time that the U.S. military has clearly lost a war fought solely by volunteers. This defeat will have many strategic consequences, but it also ...
http://warontherocks.com/2021/09/when-americas-all-volunteer-force-loses-a-war/
It’s the end of July – and that means it’s time for Strategic Outpost’s Sixth Annual Summer Vacation Reading List! We all need a break from Zoom squares, email overload, kids doing their ...
http://warontherocks.com/2021/07/strategic-outposts-sixth-annual-summer-vacation-reading-list/
What should America do about China’s increasingly hostile stance toward Taiwan? Some have called for clear and specific promises to protect Taiwan in the event of a crisis. Such promises would ...
http://warontherocks.com/2021/07/ambiguity-is-a-fact-not-a-policy/
A week into his administration, President Joe Biden announced that he was “putting the climate crisis at the center of United States foreign policy and national security,” and directed the in...
U.S. special operations forces have leapt out of the shadows during the last 20 years of war. They have become the best known and most acclaimed part of the U.S. military, and their capabilities ...
http://warontherocks.com/2021/06/fixing-oversight-of-special-operations-forces/
Cyber is now the oxygen upon which the U.S. military depends for almost literally every element of its vast warfighting capabilities. No military service today can function without reliable, resi...
http://warontherocks.com/2021/05/why-the-united-states-needs-an-independent-cyber-force/
Since the Gulf War, the U.S. military has followed an operational script that exploits technological advantages to fight and win quickly. It starts with blinding strikes against intelligence and ...
For years, critics of U.S. cyber security policy have called for more centralization. Government efforts are spread across many organizations, we are told, making effective coordination inefficie...
http://warontherocks.com/2021/01/a-lower-bar-for-the-cyber-czar/
Ho ho holy smokes! What a year! You try to get out a delivery order for every little boy and girl all around the world with your elves working at 25 percent capacity! Thanks a bunch, County of No...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/12/elf-confidential-santas-2020-national-security-gift-list/
President-elect Joe Biden will have two intelligence priorities when he replaces Donald Trump in January. The first is repairing relations with the intelligence community. The second is using int...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/11/intelligence-in-the-biden-administration/
The U.S. Army is facing a stormy period that will be marked by wrenching change in the coming years. In the early weeks of the COVID-19 shutdown, we argued that the defense budget would decline a...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/10/the-headwinds-looming-for-the-u-s-army/
Editor’s Note: This essay is adapted from the John Kennard Eddy Memorial Lecture on World Affairs, delivered by the author in October 2020 at Ohio Wesleyan University. Four years ago, the Un...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/10/should-the-military-protect-the-election/
Is the U.S. military adaptable enough to prevail in the wars of the 21st century? We’ve spent the last four years thinking about this question, first teaching a class on military adaptation and...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/09/falling-into-the-adaptation-gap/
This year, U.S. Cyber Command celebrated its tenth birthday. It has much to celebrate: It achieved the status of a unified combatant command, its budget is healthy, and its commander, Gen. Paul N...
Crossing the Great Plains on an expedition to Utah in the 1850s, Maj. Charles A. May searched the wagons in an effort to reduce unnecessary baggage. When he reached the wagons of the light artill...
Welcome to the summer of 2020, and a vacation season like no other! Some of you readers may be furtively planning to escape to isolated cabins hidden away in the mountains for a week or two. But ...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/07/strategic-outposts-fifth-annual-summer-vacation-reading-list/
Technology and politics are conspiring to make the world dangerously unstable. The result: War and nuclear escalation are becoming more likely. These are the summary conclusions of a diverse grou...
The new cadets at West Point had only been at the academy for a few short weeks when they were shuffled into the boxing section of the gym one evening for a lesson that had nothing to do with aca...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/06/reflections-on-the-curse-of-racism-in-the-u-s-military/
“This is insane.” So declared former CIA Director Michael Hayden on hearing the news last week that President Donald Trump was considering pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty. In place since...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/06/has-the-united-states-abandoned-arms-control/
On an official visit to the People’s Liberation Army’s National University of Defense Technology in Changsha, China, a colleague from the Air Force Research Institute and I were talking with ...
The global pandemic is about to profoundly change the U.S. military’s role in defending the United States — even if Pentagon leaders don’t know it yet. As we noted in our last column, many ...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/04/five-ways-the-u-s-military-will-change-after-the-pandemic/
We expect a lot from the intelligence community. In addition to traditional missions like providing warning and supporting warfighters, intelligence agencies now provide assessments on transnatio...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/04/an-attack-on-inspector-general-signals-something-much-bigger/
The novel coronavirus pandemic is upending life in every corner of the world and its worst effects are just now beginning to spread throughout the United States. Most of the nation has been essen...
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work....
http://warontherocks.com/2020/03/what-can-the-picatinny-rail-teach-us-about-artificial-intelligence/
Last week, as a real virus upstaged computer viruses, the congressionally mandated Cyberspace Solarium Commission released a sweeping plan to organize and guide U.S. cybersecurity policy. The com...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/03/did-the-cyberspace-solarium-commission-live-up-to-its-name/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Wor...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/03/fog-friction-and-thinking-machines/
The wars of 9/11 have taken a significant toll on the U.S. military, but special operations forces have arguably shouldered this burden most deeply. For almost two decades, special operations for...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/02/how-to-fix-u-s-special-operations-forces/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/02/from-deception-to-attrition-ai-and-the-changing-face-of-warfare/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It responds to t...
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/02/the-abcs-of-ai-enabled-intelligence-analysis/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work...
In February 1996, Director of Central Intelligence John Deutch gave an unclassified worldwide threat briefing to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Although intelligence leaders had occ...
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Wor...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/02/make-data-science-accessible-for-the-pentagon/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/02/can-warfighters-remain-the-masters-of-ai/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work....
http://warontherocks.com/2020/02/how-to-actually-recruit-talent-for-the-ai-challenge/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work...
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Wor...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/01/day-zero-ethics-for-military-ai/
The fiery explosions from the recent U.S. drone attack that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani have sent shock waves reverberating across the Middle East. Those same shocks should now be rip...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/01/the-drone-beats-of-war-the-u-s-vulnerability-to-targeted-killings/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It broadly addr...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/01/the-ai-literacy-gap-hobbling-american-officialdom/
The United States government has sent almost 800,000 military personnel to Afghanistan over the past 18 years. It has never been entirely clear why they were fighting, or whether they had any pro...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/01/the-primacy-problem-explaining-americas-afghan-purgatory/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It addresses the...
http://warontherocks.com/2020/01/what-chess-can-teach-us-about-the-future-of-ai-and-war/
Editor’s Note: In honor of Christmas, we proudly publish the text of Brig. Gen. Anthony McAuliffe’s 1944 Christmas letter to the U.S. 101st Airborne Division at Bastogne. An image of the let...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/12/nuts-brig-gen-anthony-mcauliffes-1944-christmas-letter-3/
It is 20XX. A limited war breaks out involving a territorial dispute in the South China Sea. A U.S. Marine Corps assault team moves out of the back of an MV-22 pulling boxes containing a mix of c...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/12/mosaic-warfare-small-and-scalable-are-beautiful/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It addresses th...
Classification: CLOSEHOLD//NOHUMAN//ELFONLY To: The Elves From: Santa Date: December 10, 2019 Re: Gifts for the National Security Community Thank you all for your excellent ...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/12/santas-classified-national-security-gift-list-for-2019/
Just before Veterans Day, we participated in an unusual staff ride that examined the domestic front of the Vietnam War. We joined our students and colleagues from the Strategic Studies program at...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/11/revisiting-the-vietnam-war-at-home-and-what-it-means-for-today/
Americans still have a year before they head to the polls, but law enforcement officials are already sounding the alarm about foreign interference in the coming election. In 2016, Russia used a c...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/11/can-the-united-states-deter-election-meddling/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It responds to ...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/11/first-manage-security-threats-to-machine-learning/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It addresses the...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/10/ai-and-irregular-warfare-an-evolution-not-a-revolution/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It addresses t...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/10/our-future-lies-in-making-ai-robust-and-verifiable/
This submission is in response to the search for ideas from the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. It addresses item 3b — the infrastructure needed to sustain leadership i...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/10/see-you-in-a-month-ais-long-data-tail/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work....
http://warontherocks.com/2019/10/embrace-open-source-military-research-to-win-the-ai-competition/
This week, President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Syria-Turkey border region. In so doing Trump rekindled debates about credibility, support for allies, and Ameri...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/10/revisiting-iraq-in-the-shadow-of-syria/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/10/measuring-war-cognitive-effects-in-the-age-of-ai/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Wor...
Military planning documents rarely draw more than a yawn in Washington, but the new Marine Corps Commandant’s Planning Guidance is proving an exception. Crafted by newly appointed Gen. David Be...
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work....
http://warontherocks.com/2019/09/terrorist-groups-artificial-intelligence-and-killer-drones/
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work....
Editor’s Note: Joshua Rovner’s special series, “The Brush Pass,” is back. Rovner is rejoining us after spending a year at the National Security Agency and Cyber Command as a scholar-in-re...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/09/cyber-war-as-an-intelligence-contest/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. “If the d...
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It addresses t...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/09/what-if-the-u-s-military-neglects-ai-ai-futures-and-u-s-incapacity/
This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It addresses th...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/09/ai-will-change-war-but-not-in-the-way-you-think/
This short story was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work. It addresses...
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted in response to the call for ideas issued by the co-chairs of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Robert Work....
“For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them.” -Aristotle, The Nicomachean Ethics The school year is about to start, and not just for the kids. Senior-level ...
When normal people go on vacation, they try to get as far away from work as possible. When national security nerds go on vacation, we like to take more work with us! In that spirit, we offer you ...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/07/strategic-outposts-fourth-annual-summer-vacation-reading-list/
Editor’s Note: This is the 27th installment of “Southern (Dis)Comfort,” a series from War on the Rocks and the Stimson Center. The series seeks to unpack the dynamics of intensifying comp...
The U.S. military has been America’s most trusted institution for decades. It has managed to remain above the partisan political fray that has consumed many once-trusted cornerstones of America...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/06/the-increasingly-dangerous-politicization-of-the-u-s-military/
According to the U.S. military, relatively few heroes have fought in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although more than 2.7 million servicemembers have served on more than 5.4 million deploymen...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/05/the-other-stolen-valor-unrecognized-heroism-in-our-recent-wars/
Instead of traveling to Daytona Beach or Puerto Vallarta over our spring break this year, we traveled back in time. We joined nearly 50 of our graduate students at the Johns Hopkins School of Adv...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/04/powerful-lessons-from-spring-break-in-world-war-ii-france/
Editor’s Note: This is the 26th installment of “Southern (Dis)Comfort,” a series from War on the Rocks and the Stimson Center. The series seeks to unpack the dynamics of intensifying comp...
Editor’s Note: This is the 25th installment of “Southern (Dis)Comfort,” a series from War on the Rocks and the Stimson Center. The series seeks to unpack the dynamics of intensifying comp...
In 2004, Maj. Gen. James Mattis wrote that he found both comfort and professional guidance in his stalwart habit of reading. “It doesn’t give me all the answers,” he wrote, “But it lights...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/03/reframing-rigor-for-senior-service-colleges/
Newly selected one-star generals and admirals in the U.S. military are often jokingly warned that pinning on their new rank means “you will never again have a bad meal, and you will never again...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/03/loyalty-and-dissent-getting-flag-officers-to-hear-the-truth/
There has been no shortage of recent criticisms directed at professional military education, with some asking the question, “What is it good for?” The 2018 National Defense Strategy claimed p...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/03/how-we-do-strategy-as-performance-up-at-newport/
Col. John M. Collins retired from the Army in late June 1972 on a Friday. The following Monday, he began his new job as a senior specialist in national defense in the Congressional Research Servi...
Like many of his friends, I first “met” John Collins online. In early 2004, I was serving as the operations officer of a tank battalion task force in Al Anbar, Iraq. I was mentioned in a New ...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/02/a-life-well-lived-the-warlords-legacy/
Editor’s Note: As part of “Remembering the Warlord,” a series honoring the memory of John Collins, we are republishing remarks by Collins delivered at Georgetown University in 2012 and repu...
Editor’s Note: This is the second installment of “Remembering the Warlord,” a series dedicated to the memory of John Collins. Read the introduction to the series here. I was introduced to C...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/02/john-collins-on-weapons-of-mass-destruction/
Henry Ford once said, “Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it.” John Collins, who passed away recently at the age of 97, agreed. Most peop...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/02/remembering-john-collins-father-and-warlord/
All militaries craft narratives to help them understand and explain their wars. At their best, these stories can help divine important lessons learned, capturing hard-won battlefield wisdom. But ...
http://warontherocks.com/2019/02/debunking-the-myths-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/