On March 23, 2015, Ted Cruz officially kicked off the Republican presidential primary by entering the race. “I believe in the power of millions of courageous conservatives rising up to reignite...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-republican-field-dwindled-from-17-to-donald-trump/
When he unveiled his tax plan last week, Jeb Bush said he knew his economic policies would work because he’d “done it before.” “As governor of Florida, I cut taxes every single year,” B...
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry effectively dropped out of the presidential race Friday, ending his second White House bid the same way he did his first. Perry was polling around 2 percent nationall...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/rick-perry-drops-out-2016-presidential-race/
Rick Perry’s campaign for the Republican presidential nomination is sputtering. It is running short on cash and is no longer paying its staff, according to reports from several news organizatio...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/rick-perrys-low-budget-campaign-needs-super-pacs-to-survive/
Most of the 2016 presidential candidates have at least one super PAC supporting them. And while almost all of those super PACs have raised the majority of their money from a small group of big co...
At 5 p.m. on Tuesday, a gong will be struck at the Fox News headquarters in New York. At that moment, the five most recent national primary polls, “as recognized by FOX News,” will be average...
I feel for Rick Perry. He entered the 2012 presidential race as the last great conservative hope to defeat Mitt Romney, and Perry’s campaign wasn’t just a bust, it was an epic, cringe-inducin...
Remember when Rick Perry, during his run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, said the Federal Reserve’s stimulus policies might be “treasonous”? That was a dramatic escalation ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-fed-has-never-been-more-polarizing/
Mitt Romney’s inchoate 2016 campaign for president is dead. After learning that few Republican insiders supported what would be his third bid for the White House, Romney announced Friday that h...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/romney-not-running-for-president/
Figuring out who is going to run for president is a little like figuring out whom to date. Some potential candidates are honest about their intentions, and others are more coy. Is the person sitt...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2016-president-who-is-going-to-run/
Friday is former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell’s third day on the witness stand in his public corruption trial. Friday also marks one week since Texas Gov. Rick Perry was indicted on abuse of...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-only-seems-like-politics-is-more-corrupt/
Texas Gov. Rick Perry was indicted late Friday on two felony counts for alleged abuse of power by a state grand jury, the AP reported. BREAKING: Texas Gov. Rick Perry indicted for abuse of power ...
With the South Carolina Republican primary race looking increasingly tight — the FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives Newt Gingrich a 25 percent chance of winning there based on the latest poll...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/perrys-voters-may-not-flock-to-gingrich/
Every candidate has a lot on the line in the Iowa caucus on Tuesday, but perhaps none more than Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. With a strong finish in the caucuses, Mr. Perry could re-emerge as a top-...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-iowa-rick-perry-is-stuck-in-the-second-tier/
Mitt Romney has run a smooth, low-drama campaign so far, but its aggressive posture toward Rick Perry within the past week leaves me wondering about his strategic choices. The attacks began on Mo...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/romneys-premature-perry-panic/
This morning I introduced a formula that projects a candidate’s vote total in the Iowa caucuses based on their finish in the Ames Straw poll as well a couple of other factors. The straw poll hi...
It is too soon to apply a purely objective approach to forecasting the outcome of the Republican primaries. But I do not think that it is too soon to start getting specific about the chances that...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/handicapping-the-republican-field-part-i-the-top-tier/