Bond Economics

Note: This article would hopefully be worked into my banking manuscript. I think it overlaps other article(s), but I wanted to see how this line of argument looks. Needless to say, I have no pu...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/04/asset-allocation-and-banking.html

I recently wrote about r*, which is now the preferred way to refer to the “neutral” or “natural rate” of interest (in real terms). Although my concerns appear hand-wavy, there is a wa...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/04/my-r-concerns.html

The BIS Quarterly Review had a recent paper on r* (the preferred term for the “natural rate of interest”) by Benigno, Gianluca, Boris Hofmann, Galo Nuño Barrau, and Damiano Sandri. “Quo v...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/04/bis-r-paper.html

Steve Keen recently wrote “I’m not Discreet, and Neither is Time ” in which he discusses the alleged defects of discrete time models as opposed to continuous time ones. (In discrete time,...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/04/in-defence-of-discrete-time-models.html

This is an unedited manuscript excerpt, from a chapter that discusses how asset price changes relate to inflation. Even if one believes that asset price increases represent inflation, the gene...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/03/comments-on-asset-prices-and-inflation.html

Since I am still chugging away with edits, I have not been spending much time watching developments in markets. I just wanted to off some brief comments on events from central banks last week. I...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/03/late-central-bank-comments.html

I was recently on a podcast with Steven D. Grumbine to discuss inflation. Link: https://realprogressives.org/podcast_episode/episode-268-there-is-no-magic-pricing-fairy-with-brian-romanchuk ...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/03/macro-n-cheese-podcast-inflation.html

The Committee for Economic Development (CED) of Conference Board recently put out “Explainer: The National Debt” which is pretty much a greatest hits of debt scare mongering. Other than ...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/03/the-debt-crisis-is-here-conference.html

This article is an unedited draft section from my inflation primer manuscript. This section is a re-write of content that I saw as having issues. This re-write has led me to be happier with the...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/03/primer-why-not-used-fixed-consumption.html

One of the issues of an interest rate focussed blog is that bond markets can settle into rather uneventful extended range trading dynamics. This has been the case for U.S. inflation-linked bo...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/02/tips-and-drying-paint.html

I ran into an interesting question online: what is neoclassical macroeconomics? I use neoclassical economics as a synonym for “modern mainstream academic macroeconomic theory,” which may not...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/02/what-is-neoclassical-economics.html

I ran into this article on inflation hedging with inflation-linked bonds from FT Alphaville. I just scanned it quickly, but I think that the the approach used makes the topic unnecessarily c...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/01/inflation-hedging-do-not-ask-for.html

Nick Rowe’s article on Milton Friedman’s Thermostat has popped up in online conversation. For those of you unfamiliar with it, it is about inferring statistical relationships between inf...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/01/why-friedman-thermostat-analogy-should.html

Nick Timiroas highlighted an exchange from Fed Governor Waller (link to speech/interview transcript ) on Twitter. This article consists of two rants based on the transcript, plus a bonus rant in...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/01/waller-comments.html

I got a question about references for post-Keynesian theories of interest rates. My answer to this has a lot of levels, and eventually turns into a rant about modern academia. Since I do not ...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/01/a-response-to-question-about-post.html

Since I am not in the forecasting game, I not on top of what the consensus views are. I also no longer pay attention to others’ Year Ahead Forecasts (which tend to be produced in December a...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/01/a-non-forecast-2024-outlook.html

This article is a wrapping up of a sequence of articles on the topic of “central banks as banks,” which is expected to form a chapter in my book on banking. This version of the text is a br...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/01/central-banks-and-crises.html

This will be my last posting before Christmas, and depending on what I get up to, possibly the last of 2023. This article is somewhat of a placeholder for my manuscript chapter. It is a group o...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2023/12/should-everybody-have-account-at.html

This article continues my sequence of articles on central banks as banks, which is projected to be a chapter in my banking manuscript. This article is relatively lightweight, but I wanted to br...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2023/12/should-central-banks-lend-unsecured-to.html

I was passed along the article “Views from the Floor — Tighter and Tighter” by the Man Institute published last month. It discusses using the FOMC long-term projections to infer the term ...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2023/12/using-fed-projections-to-infer-term.html

This article continues the sequence of articles on central banks as banks. This article was as brief as possible since it overlapped my book Understanding Government Finance (available for sale...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2023/11/the-central-bank-and-government-finance.html

This article continues my series of articles on central banks as banks. Central bank balance sheets (in the modern era, at least) are relatively simple. There is a split between banks with a ...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2023/11/central-bank-balance-sheets.html

This article continues the plan outlined in the previous article “Central Banks as Banks .” As I described therein, this is projected to become a chapter within my banking primer. I am not ...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2023/11/central-bank-banking-basics.html

My plan is to write a draft what should become a chapter for my banking book. The inflation manuscript is in good shape (but way behind schedule), but there’s nothing I can publish from it (o...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2023/11/central-banks-as-banks.html

The title of this article is deliberately silly, but there are times where I just need to be deliberately silly. I am not going to discuss why people (like myself, sigh) decided to not cut their...

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2023/11/so-how-did-you-lose-money-buying-risk.html