IMPLICATIONS: Durable goods orders rose a healthy 2.6% in March, with gains heavily concentrated around the typically volatile transportation sector. The largest gain was commercial aircr...
IMPLICATIONS: New home sales came in stronger than expected in March, driven by broad-based gains as more inventories give buyers a greater number of options to choose from. Notably, the 8....
The economy continued to grow in the first quarter at what we estimate is a 2.6% annual rate. That’s a slowdown from the 3.1% rate in 2023, but still good compared to the past couple of decad...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/22/continued-growth-in-q1
In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we explore the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which became the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge starting in 2000. ...
IMPLICATIONS: Existing home sales took a widely expected breather in March following the largest monthly gain in a year in February. While sales activity has finally bottomed it looks like ...
IMPLICATIONS: Industrial production continued to rebound in March, rising for a second month due to broad-based gains. The manufacturing sector was the main source of strength in today’s ...
IMPLICATIONS: Housing starts posted the largest monthly decline in March since the worst of the COVID pandemic, coming in well short of consensus expectations. However, this follows a sur...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/16/housing-starts-declined-14.7percent-in-march
IMPLICATIONS: Retail sales beat expectations in March, rising 0.7% for the month versus a consensus expected gain of 0.4%, while previous months were revised higher. Factoring these in, r...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/15/retail-sales-rose-0.7percent-in-march
Many, us included, see parallels between today’s big issues and those of the 1960s and 1970s. Mistakes in both geopolitical and fiscal policies compound overtime, often leading to more mistak...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/15/elections-matter
IMPLICATIONS: Do you hear that sound? It’s the door creaking closed on the chances for a June rate cut. While the producer price index rose a modest 0.2% in March, that comes on the ba...
In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we look at the Federal Reserve’s financials through year-end 2023. Back in 2008, the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) embarked on a novel...
IMPLICATIONS: Where is the evidence that monetary policy is tight? Consumer prices rose 0.4% in March, pushing the twelve-month comparison up to 3.5%. At this point it looks clear tha...
In the waning seconds of one of the most watched women’s college basketball games ever, a foul was called. The University of Connecticut was playing the University of Iowa in the semi-finals ...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/8/is-the-fed-tight,-or-not
IMPLICATIONS: The labor market showed strength in March: good news for workers, but bad news for those hoping for early or more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Nonfarm payr...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/5/nonfarm-payrolls-increased-303,000-in-march
This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” looks at the S&P 500 Index over the first quarter of 2024. Widely regarded as a barometer for the overall stock market, the S&P 500 Index trac...
IMPLICATIONS: The trade deficit in goods and services grew to $68.9 billion in February as imports rose faster than exports. However, we prefer to focus on the total volume of trade, impo...
IMPLICATIONS: The services sector continued to expand in March, but the pace of growth slowed. The headline index declined to 51.4 in March, missing the consensus expected 52.8, with twelve...
IMPLICATIONS: The ISM Manufacturing Index showed some signs of life in March, rising to 50.3, and beating even the most optimistic forecast from any economics group surveyed by Bloomberg. �...
IMPLICATIONS: Consumers remain healthy, and inflation remains a concern. Let’s start with PCE prices – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – which rose 0.3% in Febr...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/1/personal-income-rose-0.3percent-in-february
Several years ago some politicians started demanding that the Federal Reserve get audited. We think the idea has some merits but also some drawbacks, as well. One problem with the Fed is that...
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/4/1/the-fed-audit