“Sour Grapes” is my response to all the complaining about central banks (“CBs”) distorting markets, ruining price discovery, and leading their countries into the hellscape of negative rea...
How did gold become gold? And, more importantly, why is gold staying gold? Silver had its run during some periods and in some cultures, but silver has become “tarnished” as a store of value...
I greatly enjoyed watching Raoul Pal’s latest interview with Kyle Bass, entitled “Tipping Point for China ” on RealVisionTV. While my eagerness to hear the discussion was rooted in hearing ...
WHEN CAN TRADERS OUT-ECONOMIZE THE ECONOMISTS? In both my public comments and investor correspondence, I have been consistently emphasizing the importance of separating expert opinions from lay...
Market participants, remembering the impact of Brexit, have their focus on France this weekend. The last thing I want to do is add into the mix my futile hunches regarding the probabilities of va...
Year end is a sweet time for bashing forecasters. Many investors take a savage delight in pointing how comically off particular economists or analysts were on this or that price, or event, in 2...
TRUMPONOMICS For over two solid weeks after the election, the markets have been relentlessly pricing in the success of “Trumponomics.” To be clear, we mean “success” in a purely non-par...
All too often I hear sentences like “The bond market and the stock market say opposite things about the economy” or “A flat curve means recession, so if you expect the curve to get flatter ...
A fascinating debate about equity valuations and the validity of lofty bond prices rages on. Some macro thinkers such as @MarkYusko, while not exactly calling top of the stock market, recommend b...
CIO, HonTe Investments. Ran global macro at JPM. Yahoo! Finance Contributor. Ph.D. in Mathematics. Author, The Next Perfect Trade. No investment advice.
Short JPY, CNH, and NZD are three currencies positions that have been prone to elicit doubt and second guessing recently.The great JPY short (long USDJPY) initiated as early as 2010 is much discu...
Few of us really know a good answer to this question, except that it is a matter of pride and that there is an external pressure to avoid catastrophic depreciation.
What is the target on the short EURUSD position? Are all the dollar bulls just looking at the charts? Or are they throwing out targets at random: “Parity”, “Post-inception low”, and so on...
Thank you for your support! 1) A dominant trade to go long oil hasbeen to buy cheap oil-correlated currencies such as MXN or RUB 2) As for bitcoin - the easiest is to open an account on an ex...
As market panic rises, I like to bottom-fish. Of course, timing is important but I don’t stake the success of my portfolio on the correct interpretation of technicals, flows and volatile ind...
I am not short SGD, but a lot of people I respect like the trade. Short KRW is another proxy. Personally I am willing to eat the carry and be short some CNH/CNY.
Thank you for your support. And thank you for keeping me honest and clear. Like many traders I have an emotional bias towards inertia. It is easier for me to keep running a profitable position th...
Before August of this year, the answer was a no-brainer. Remember, our imperative is to buy low. I have written multiple times about the Chinese currency both BEFORE and AFTER the August 11th d...
Arguably, the three biggest Central Bank (“CB”) driven surprises so far this year: January 15, 2015 - SNB de-pegged the Swiss Franc, causing catastrophic revaluation. August 11, 2015 - PB...
Generally, the process is more slow and complex. I discuss much of it in The Next Perfect Trade . One market modality to consider is: when stocks go down, we can incrementally expect a slower eco...