The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constr...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-18-june-2024/
* US stocks (S&P 500) close at another record high on Monday (June 17) * AI optimism persuades 3 Wall Street banks to lift stock market forecasts * Central banks expected to boost gold holdings d...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-june-2024/
The Capital Spectator will be off the grid for the next several days as he treks to Rome for a brief diversion. The usual routine resumes on Tuesday, June 18. Arrivederci!
https://www.capitalspectator.com/roman-holiday-capital-spectator-edition/
The US stock market’s strong year-to-date gain so far in 2024 has enjoyed wide support among equity sectors. The two glaring downside exceptions: consumer discretionary and real estate shares, ...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/most-us-equity-sectors-are-up-this-year-with-two-exceptions/
* Fed appears set to leave interest rates unchanged tomorrow* Three Democratic senators urge Fed to cut rates at this week’s FOMC meeting* Median inflation expectations for 1-year horizon tick ...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-11-june-2024/
Ahead of Friday’s payrolls data for May the crowd was newly confident, again, that the Fed would soon start cutting interest rates. Treasury yields were sliding and expectations were rising tha...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/resilient-us-labor-market-blurs-outlook-for-rate-cuts/
* This week’s US inflation data will be closely watched re: Fed’s policy decisions * Far-right parties gain seats in European Union election * Mexico’s political left dominance after electi...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-10-june-2024/
● The Last Human Job: The Work of Connecting in a Disconnected World Allison Pugh Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press) With the rapid development of artificial intelligence and labor-savi...
Recent economic estimates suggest US growth has slowed compared with previous estimates, but today’s revised GDP nowcast for the second quarter still points to a modest pickup in output over Q1...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q2-gdp-nowcast-eases-but-modest-pickup-over-q1-is-expected/
* The number of zombie companies (debt-laden firms) in the world has surged * The US debt problem may be less threatening than it appears * China exports rise sharply in May amid increasing trad...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-7-june-2024/