When President Biden’s campaign began flogging “Dark Brandon” merch on its website, my spidey sense started tingling. The sensation rose when a PAC backing former President Donald Trump rel...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2024-presidential-elections-online-memes/
From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in eve...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-did-all-the-bellwether-counties-go/
We’re in the final stretch of the campaign, with just 15 days to go until the election. Indeed, “the election” is something of a misnomer, since early or mail voting is already underway in ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/
This is the fifth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. Wisconsin is proof that politicos have short memories. In 2004, Democratic pre...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-was-never-a-safe-blue-state/
This is the fourth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 202...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvania-could-decide-the-2020-election/
After a crowded and lengthy contest for the Democratic presidential nomination, the party fell in line on Super Tuesday, effectively choosing Joe Biden as the best nominee for the 2020 election. ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-clintons-loss-paved-the-way-for-biden/
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/dnc-convention-kamala-harris/
Election Day is now just three months away, and the overall trajectory of the race hasn’t changed much recently: Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over President Trump. Biden is now up...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/
For months now, President Trump has trailed Joe Biden in the polls. First, it was only a 5- or 6-percentage-point gap, but since the middle of June, that margin has widened to anywhere from 8 to ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-are-starting-to-doubt-trumps-reelection-chances/
President Trump could be in trouble. A lot could still change between now and November, but historically, the strength of the economy is correlated with the electoral strength of the incumbent pr...
Graphics by Jasmine Mithani FiveThirtyEight’s general election polling averages debuted last week, showing that former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds a big ...
Some Democrats are worried about former Vice President Joe Biden’s ability to appeal to younger voters. After all, the presumptive Democratic nominee struggled immensely to win young voters in ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-doesnt-really-have-a-young-voters-problem/
Four years ago, when President Trump was the Republican nominee, he won over voters who didn’t like him or his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, which gave him a boost in a general election...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-trump-losing-among-voters-who-dont-like-him-or-biden/
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Former Vice President Joe Biden’s team is talking a...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-arizona-georgia-and-texas-really-in-play/
One dominating response to Donald Trump’s presidency has been anger. Trump has stoked outrage among his supporters, who have echoed his rhetoric and fury, and his detractors, who have launched ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-democrats-cant-rely-on-voter-anger-this-november/
There are different “gaps” in American politics, but one that has consistently shown up in recent presidential elections is the age gap. That is, younger voters tend to vote more Democratic a...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-older-voters-turning-away-from-trump/
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): FiveThirtyEight alum Harry Enten found that former V...
While the presidential contest understandably gets the lion’s share of election coverage, don’t forget that all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will also be up for grabs in November...
Depending on who you listen to, you might hear one of two very different narratives about former Vice President Joe Biden. One says he’s a strong candidate: He leads President Trump in most ear...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-does-biden-stack-up-to-past-democratic-nominees/
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Over the weekend, an ABC/Washington Post poll found ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/so-about-that-supposed-lack-of-enthusiasm-for-biden/