Three worries and three signs of hope in the final blog post
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/05/08/so-long-farewell
The sector is essential to the economy. But it is rewarded too highly and imposes wider social costs. The penultimate in a series of farewell blogs
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/05/01/the-flaws-of-finance
Although we will probably spend 20 years or more in retirement, we don't think about it enough. The third in a series of farewell blogs
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/04/27/hope-i-save-before-i-get-old
A great book from the late Hans Rosling heads the list. The second in a series of farewell blogs
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/04/25/the-best-books-on-finance-and-economics
The first in a farewell series of blogs
Technological change has brought great benefits that aren't captured in GDP. That's not new
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/04/11/the-smartphone-and-the-toilet
RSS feed for the Buttonwood's notebook Economist blog.
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/04/10/an-update-from-jeremy-grantham
Topping up Social Security is a good idea but 3% contributions won't be enough
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/04/09/a-plan-that-needs-more-money
Leadership may be divided into the entertainment figurehead and the policymaking experts
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/03/28/we-have-seen-the-future-and-it-twerks
It may turn out to be bluster but it makes the world riskier anyway
Most funds fail to beat the index. But a lot of funds say they have. There is a simple explanation
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/03/20/beware-of-performance-figures
The big problem with DC schemes is that contributions aren’t high enough
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/03/07/the-real-problem-with-pensions
How things might turn out
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/03/02/a-history-of-the-trump-slump
How many rate rises will be too many?
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/02/28/jerome-powells-game-of-kerplunk
Can celebrities move share prices?
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/02/23/snap-chatter-and-pop-goes-the-share-price
When valuations are high, the maths points to lower returns
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/02/21/why-low-returns-are-inevitable
Can you have your cake and eat it in Singapore-on-Thames? All is revealed
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/02/14/those-brexit-cliches-explained
Both the stockmarket and economic cycles seem to have lengthened. They are tied together by credit
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/02/09/financial-markets-abhor-an-equilibrium
Currency moves can wipe out the returns from bond markets. But investors seem not to care
It is unusual for a Treasury secretary to welcome a weak dollar but he doesn’t have much influence over it
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/01/24/the-buck-drops-here
Investors in bitcoin are learning some very old lessons
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/01/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-bitcoin
A strong economy should mean bond yields head a bit (but not necessarily a lot) higher
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/01/10/predicting-doom-for-the-bond-market
A surge in inflation, forcing central banks to tighten, would be a problem for markets. But it’s hard to spot in the developed world
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/01/05/where-did-the-inflation-go
Jeremy Grantham is usually seen as a bear. But he has made a startling prediction
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2018/01/04/is-the-bubble-only-starting
Investors are very optimistic. But two analysts think they may be ignoring a big risk
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/12/18/what-2018-has-in-store-for-the-markets
Elected leaders, just like businessmen, promise too much. But the latter are easier to prove wrong
A wide spread of prices is a sign of a malfunctioning market
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/12/08/putting-a-price-on-bitcoin
The credit markets are riskier and less liquid than they used to be. This is where trouble may show up first
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/11/30/how-to-spot-the-next-crisis
The similarities between the prime ministers who took Britain into, and are taking it out of, the EU are striking. But markets are much less concerned
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/11/15/britains-1970s-retread
Less equal societies may become less democratic
There may be good reasons for buying bitcoin. But the dominant reason at the moment is that it is rising in price
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/11/01/the-bitcoin-bubble
We are better at creating new claims on wealth than wealth itself
The referendum has emboldened the ideologues in British politics, a risk for both the economy and the markets
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/10/18/when-the-revolution-eats-itself
Investors are getting convinced that the world can enjoy strong growth and low inflation
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/10/17/economic-optimism-drives-stockmarket-highs
An IMF report does not really support Jeremy Corbyn's plans; it is more nuanced
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/10/12/taxing-the-rich
When past returns have been high, future returns are more likely to be low. But people don't realise that
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/10/10/when-investors-get-stuck-in-the-past
People don't like to think about pensions. And that means they underestimate the costs
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/10/05/can-you-afford-to-retire
It is all about the risk premium. And if the pound doesn’t fall, it’s only because the mortgage rate will shoot higher
Active fund managers have had a good 12 months, but a terrible ten years
A falling trend in defaults will make investors more optimistic
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/09/15/a-positive-sign-from-the-bond-market
Saxo Bank thinks a slowdown in credit growth is bad news
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/09/08/will-credit-cause-a-slowdown
People keep calling the bond market a bubble. But it hasn’t popped yet
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/08/30/the-bond-market-defies-the-doomsters
Will the talk of fire and fury just turn out to be foolish folderol?
The debt has not gone away; the system has been kept afloat by very low interest rates
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/08/09/where-might-the-next-crisis-come-from
The market is relying on profits to stay high
The American stockmarket may be hitting new highs, but currency markets have lost faith in the Trump rally
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/08/03/a-tale-of-two-markets
A British skyscraper looks like a “must-have” for international tycoons
Mario Draghi really did “whatever it took” to save the euro
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/07/26/the-euros-obituaries-were-premature
Constructing a scenario of British decline is all too easy
The British government is reading far too much into the EU referendum result
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/07/10/the-psychic-brexit-ballot-paper
There will be more transparency on charges and better governance standards. But how much in the fund-management industry will really change?
Last time, the fear was that demand was falling. This time, it is excess supply
Globalisation is a highly disruptive force. It provoked a reaction in the early 20th century. Are we seeing a repeat?
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/06/14/the-globalisation-counter-reaction
The combination of a weak Conservative prime minister and the potential for a Corbyn government does not look attractive
The initial reaction has sent the pound and domestic shares down, and multinational shares up
Chaos and uncertainty will follow
The best guess is that sterling and equities will fall. Not so clear about gilts
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/06/06/what-will-the-markets-do-if-labour-wins
The markets are remarkably calm about polls showing that the election is narrowing
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/05/26/mays-mandate-melts
Social benefits are often sold as insurance-based schemes. But they don’t work that way
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/05/23/the-ive-paid-in-all-my-life-fallacy
Investors may have realised that Mr Trump won’t deliver all he has promised. But worse things must happen before the stockmarket slumps
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/05/18/from-russia-with-risk
The new manifesto reveals a lack of coherent philosophy from Theresa May, and no clear plan for Brexit
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/05/18/not-maggie-may-but-muddled-may
Labour’s plans aren’t really Keynesian and seem designed to repel businesses in a post-Brexit world. It is all about redistributing a smaller pie
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/05/16/old-mcdonnell-has-a-plan-he-eyes-ious
There is a battle between those who believe the reflation trade has further to go and those who think the markets are dangerously complacent
The UK will inevitably become a less attractive home for business after Brexit. The problem can be tackled, but only if politicians face up to reality
Investors were hoping for more detail but the only thing that seems clear is that the rich will gain a lot. Funny thing, populism
Investors have been relieved that Emmanuel Macron looks set to be the next French President. But that doesn’t mean the threat of economic nationalism is over
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/04/25/reports-of-populisms-death-are-premature
German prosecutors allege a financial motive for the attack on the football club’s bus
Sterling has risen because investors think a Conservative victory will allow a softer approach to Brexit. But that may not be the right call
Markets are just waking up to a new source of political risk
The inability to solve geopolitical crises is reminiscent of the League of Nations era and another disturbing parallel with the 1930s
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/04/06/the-security-threat-to-the-global-economy
Heavy industry may have cemented working class solidarity. The gig economy won’t. And mobile capital makes the issue hard to tackle
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/04/01/is-inequality-here-to-stay
Every argument Theresa May uses against the EU can be turned against her by Nicola Sturgeon
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/03/28/the-brexit-arguments-work-for-scotland-too
Might the Trump administration usher in a new era for international finance?
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/03/22/donald-trump-trade-and-the-new-world-order
There is a persistent shortfall between revenues and spending and it may get worse
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/03/16/the-hole-in-western-finances
The latest indication of a disturbing trend to quash debate and erode trust. And trust is vital for a society and economy to function properly
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/03/13/the-hounding-of-owen-jones
Referendums pose general questions, from which people can (or should) not draw specific inferences. That is why we need elected representatives
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/03/08/the-ouija-board-theory-of-democracy
Globalisation has retreated before. The results were disastrous
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/03/02/who-will-lose-when-globalisation-retreats
The markets will have to start focusing on monetary policy again
Suspicion of eastern elites and the impact of monetary policy has switched parties since 1896
Signs of global recovery, and hopes of tax cuts in America, are pushing stockmarkets to new highs
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/02/17/euphoria-returns-to-markets
Once you rely on agents, you create conflicts of interest. And you have to rely on agents
Banks have been downgrading their credit ratings of Dow components
The Trump administration's statements on the dollar have betrayed confusion. Their actions belie their words
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/02/01/talking-the-dollar-down-or-is-it-up
Tariffs raise prices for poor consumers. That used to make them politically unacceptable
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/01/27/making-protectionism-unpopular-again
Investors hoped for “Trump lite” but they are getting the dark version as well
Both Theresa May and Donald Trump are sending out mixed messages; they must disappoint the markets or their supporters
Spending is driven by either domineering governments or market bubbles. Is there a better way?
A new OECD study suggests that old, inefficient firms may be stifling economic growth
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/01/12/attack-of-the-zombie-firms
There are issues in measurement but total factor productivity seems to be shrinking
The Fed chairman's record is a case study in cognitive dissonance
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/01/05/the-greenspan-legacy
Manufacturing jobs have disappeared and they are not coming back in significant numbers
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2017/01/04/the-manufacturing-jobs-delusion
An illegal immigrant with her Hispanic-sounding dog arrive in Oz. With apologies to L Frank Baum
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2016/12/16/dorothy-meets-the-mnuchins
America’s flawed stockmarket indicator approaches a new milestone
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2016/12/14/dow-20000
The similarities between Donald Trump’s Washington and the Roman republic
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2016/12/08/dude-wheres-my-toga
How quantum physics may explain the British government’s negotiating strategy
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2016/11/30/schrodingers-brexit
A new book emphasises the importance of global value chains, which make old development policies and tariff walls look out of date
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2016/11/23/the-changing-face-of-global-trade
A timely assessment of the role of central banks in a world of low rates, quantitative easing and populist politicians
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2016/11/17/rethinking-central-bank-independence
If Britain and the EU both stick to their red lines, the result could be a damaging hard Brexit. Even if they don't there will be complex and time-consuming negotiations ahead.
The climb in bank shares is a clear sign that investors hope that Donald Trump is going to ignore the people who elected him
https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2016/11/10/markets-are-hoping-for-bush-30
Expect jittery times ahead if Mr Trump pulls off a victory