Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/sept-22nd-covid-update-deaths-and.html

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Performance Remains Strong, but Slowing Improvement Suggests Delinquencies May Be Nearing Cycle Lows > • AT 3.17%, THE U.S. DELI...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/black-knight-mortgage-delinquency-rate.html

From the Philly Fed : > The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident > indexes for the 50 states for August 2023. OVER THE PAST THREE > MONTHS, T...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/philly-fed-state-coincident-indexes.html

From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content).  Brief excerpt: > The possibility in September that other ...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/september-vehicle-sales-forecast-154.html

From BofA: > Overall, the data flow since our last report left our 3Q and 2Q US > GDP tracking unchanged at 2.9% Q/Q SAAR and 2.3% q/q saar, > respectively.  > empha...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/q3-gdp-tracking-around-3_22.html

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump up to 23-Year Highs > Between the data and the overnight momentum in overseas markets, > bonds are at their weake...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/mortgage-rates-jump-up-to-23-year-highs.html

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 September > U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according > to CoStar’s latest data through 16 September....

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-22-year.html

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Sabrina Speianu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 16, 2023 > • ACTI...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/realtorcom-reports-weekly-active_0640958267.html

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 million SAAR in August; Median Prices Increased 3.9% YoY in August Excerpt: > SALES YEAR-OVE...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to_21.html

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 0.7% in August > Existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National > Association of REALTORS®. Among the four ma...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to.html

The DOL reported : > In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for SEASONALLY > ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS WAS 201,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the > previous we...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_21.html

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The INITIAL WEEKLY UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS report will be released. The consensus...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/thursday-existing-home-sales.html

Statement here . Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections . PROJECTIONS OF THE NEUTRAL FED FUNDS RATE INCREASED AGAI...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/fomc-projections-and-press-conference.html

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: > Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding > at...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/fomc-statement-no-change-to-rates.html

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Sees Softening Business Conditions in Aug...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/aia-architecture-billings-softening.html

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in August A brief excerpt: > Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/4th-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey > Mortgage applications increased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, > according to data from the Mortgag...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/mba-mortgage-applications-increased-in.html

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the MORT...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/wednesday-fomc-statement.html

NOTES: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/la-port-inbound-traffic-down-yoy-in.html

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: August Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: > The third graph shows the mon...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/august-housing-starts-near-record.html

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions > HOUSING STARTS: > PRIVATELY‐OWNED HOUSING STARTS IN AUGUST WERE AT A SEASONALLY > ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE OF 1,283,000.�...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/housing-starts-decreased-to-1283.html

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged After Mid-Day Improvements > The average lender was only 0.02% higher than Friday this morning, > and ...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/tuesday-housing-starts.html

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.33% in August > The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring > Survey revealed that the to...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August and Some New Household/Housing Stock Data A brief excerpt: > From housing economis...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html

Note: I didn't update this last week. The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index r...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03.html