We establish basic facts about the external finance premium. Tens of millions of individual loan contracts extended to euro area firms allow studying the determinants of the external finance prem...
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2934~c3addfeb73.en.pdf
We evaluate how the euro area economy would have performed since mid-2021 under alternative monetary policy strategies. We use the ECB’s workhorse estimated DSGE model and contrast actual polic...
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2935~639250ee2b.en.pdf
Headline and core inflation levels and momentum dynamics in the euro area are currently somewhat weaker than in the United States, reflecting buoyant rent inflation and consumption growth in the ...
This box investigates the drivers of the weakness in euro area imports in 2023. After rebounding in mid-2022 as a result of the easing supply bottlenecks for goods and the lifting of mobility res...
Changes in energy prices and wage costs can, to the extent these are passed through to consumer prices, have important effects on HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX). Data from diffe...
When long-term inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates for the euro area peaked in summer 2023, some observers expressed concerns that ILS rates reflected not only inflation compensation, but also non-...
Following the European Commission’s legislative proposals of April 2023, the ECOFIN Council reached an agreement on the reform of the fiscal rules underpinning the EU Stability and Growth Pact ...
Latest releases on the ECB website - Publications
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202403.en.html
Banks in the euro area can generate high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) by borrowing central bank reserves from the Eurosystem against non-HQLA collateral. This paper quantifies the extent of this ...
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2933~8546fb6350.en.pdf
The pricing decisions of firms are a key determinant of inflation. To understand inflation dynamics, it is necessary to analyse how often and by how much individual prices change. This article di...
This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for safe government debt to currency unhedged and hedged excess returns in a sample of US mutual funds. We find evidence of active rebalancin...
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2931~8b0e21c2d2.en.pdf
We analyze, for the first time, how firms choose the currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and investigate, using direct evidence, whether the US dollar (US...
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2932~3bbd264674.en.pdf
This article shows that trust in the ECB needs to be analysed and understood as a multifaceted concept. Analysis of data from the Consumer Expectations Survey shows that trust is not a matter of ...
We evaluate the effects of contagion and common exposure on banks’ capital through a regression design inspired by the structural VAR literature and derived from the balance sheet identity. Con...
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2929~19cda4a673.en.pdf
We study how millions of granular and weekly household scanner data combined with machine learning can help to improve the real-time nowcast of German inflation. Our nowcasting exercise targets t...
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2930~05cff276eb.en.pdf