Bayesian Investor Blog

Book review: Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World, by Nick Bostrom. Bostrom’s previous book, Superintelligence, triggered expressions of concern. In his latest work, he describes his...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/04/23/deep-utopia/

I’ve been dedicating a fair amount of my time recently to investigating whole brain emulation (WBE). As computational power continues to grow, the feasibility of emulating a human brain at a re...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/04/05/exploring-whole-brain-emulation/

Back in 2008, I criticized the book Predictocracy for proposing prediction markets whose contracts would be resolved without reference to ground truth. Recently, Srinivasan, Karger, and Chen (SKC...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/03/02/self-resolving-prediction-markets/

Manifold Markets is a prediction market platform where I’ve been trading since September. This post will compare it to other prediction markets that I’ve used. Play Money The most important f...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/02/01/manifold-markets/

Book review: A Theory of Everyone – The New Science of Who We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We’re Going Energy, culture and a better future for everyone, by Michael Muthukrishna. I found th...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2024/01/12/a-theory-of-everyone/

Book review: Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity, by Daniel Deudney. Dark Skies is an unusually good and bad book. Good in the sense that 95% of the bo...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/12/28/dark-skies/

Book review: The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder, by Peter Zeihan. Are you looking for an entertaining set of geopolitical foreca...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/12/11/the-accidental-superpower/

I expect that within a decade, AI will be able to do 90% of current human jobs. I don’t mean that 90% of humans will be obsolete. I mean that the average worker could delegate 90% of

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/11/16/when-will-ais-develop-long-term-planning/

Disagreements related to what we value seem to explain maybe 10% of the disagreements over AI safety. This post will try to explain how I think about which values I care about perpetuating to the...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/10/13/disentangling-our-terminal-and-instrumental-values/

I’ve been hearing vague claims that automated theorem provers are able to, or will soon be able to prove things about complex software such as AIs. Max Tegmark and Steve Omohundro have now publ...

https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/10/05/provably-safe-ai/