While President Trump’s approval rating among self-identified Republicans is sky-high, it’s hard to ignore his political vulnerabilities. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics p...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-will-trump-face-a-primary-challenge/
Republicans suffered a resounding defeat in the 2018 midterms. President Trump now faces investigations not only from special counsel Robert Mueller, but also from Democratic chairpersons who wil...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/
In this week’s politics chat, we discuss the prospect of a third-party presidential candidate in 2020. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): We’r...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-a-third-party-ticket-win-in-2020/
Donald Trump showed that the field of people who could be elected president is larger than just senators, governors and vice presidents. And his underwhelming approval ratings so far suggest that...
Ohio’s Republican-led legislature passed a law on Tuesday making abortion illegal once a fetal heartbeat can be detected (typically at about six weeks’ gestation). The bill is awaiting a sign...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-public-views-ohios-abortion-bill/
Hillary Clinton received the backing of Rep. Richard Hanna of New York on Tuesday. Hanna is the first Republican member of Congress to say explicitly that he will vote for Clinton in the fall rat...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-anti-trump-voters-look-a-lot-like-kasich-supporters/
On March 23, 2015, Ted Cruz officially kicked off the Republican presidential primary by entering the race. “I believe in the power of millions of courageous conservatives rising up to reignite...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-republican-field-dwindled-from-17-to-donald-trump/
Ohio Gov. John Kasich just announced that he suspending his campaign for president. That Kasich isn’t going to be president of the United States should shock no one, but that he managed to keep...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-long-weird-kasich-campaign-gives-in-to-reality/
Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. If you’d told me a year ago that Trump would be the nominee, I’d have thought you were nuts. Don’t just take my word for it: Read wha...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-republican-voters-decided-on-trump/
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/indiana-primary-presidential-election-2016/
For this week’s politics Slack chat, we dive into why the “Stop Trump” efforts have failed so miserably. The transcript below has been lightly edited. Check out our live coverage of the Ind...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-did-the-stop-trump-movement-fall-apart/
Donald Trump may be a runaway train. He has blasted through his 50 percent “ceiling,” outperforming his polls and winning a clear majority in the last six states to cast ballots. All that suc...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-guide-to-the-three-possible-outcomes-in-indianas-gop-primary/
Donald Trump’s romp through the Northeast corridor last week shattered all expectations. It also positions Indiana’s contest on Tuesday as a desperate last stand for Ted Cruz and the #NeverTr...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/indiana-republican-primary-preview/
Indiana Gov. Mike Pence endorsed Ted Cruz on Friday, which may not be enough to help Cruz win Indiana, where he currently trails Donald Trump in polls, let alone the Republican nomination. Nevert...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-in-competitive-races-have-shunned-trump/
Tuesday night went about as well as possible for Donald Trump. Two weeks ago, after a rough stretch of states for Trump, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-trumps-nomination-to-lose/
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/april-26-primaries-presidential-election-2016/
The Republican primary calendar could hardly have worked out better for Donald Trump. There is plenty of evidence that he’s had the most to lose from a field that’s winnowed as the presidenti...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-four-corners-of-the-gop-donald-trump-owns-three-of-them/
John Kasich and Ted Cruz are openly coordinating their campaign strategies to stop Donald Trump from reaching the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the GOP nomination before the convention. In t...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elections-podcast-kasich-and-cruz-are-scheming/
In this week’s politics chat, we weigh the impact of the newly minted alliance between Ted Cruz and John Kasich against Donald Trump. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-kasich-cruz-alliance-work/
Sometimes people on the East Coast act as if the political world revolves around them (OK, us). It usually doesn’t. Except this time. Voters in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-at-stake-for-republicans-in-the-northeast-primaries/