ImpliedRiskReport

As Dave Barry would say, it sounds like a great name for a band. But really it's the name for what the International Monetary Fund says is going to kill this stock market. It ain't earnings, it a...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/haircut-contagion.html

Last week the bonds were peaking and getting ready to revert to the mean. This week it’s the gold stocks. Coming into today, Gold/Silver (XAU) was exactly two standard deviations above its 90-...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/ill-sell-my-gold-stocks-to-you.html

Sub-prime mortgage sellers and hedge funds are inextricably linked. In fact, we think they're two sides of the same coin. Hence, we expect most hedge funds to follow the sub-prime sellers right o...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/two-sides-of.html

Can you believe this guy? Wouldn't say anything but mumbles when he was employed by The People, but now that he has to make his own money he's full of opinions. Devoted to the ideal of the Virtue...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/greenspan-perfect-patsy.html

Bond ETFs and yield indexes appear to have completed another coast-to-coast move. In just three months, bonds ETFs have gone from more than three standard deviations oversold on a 90-day basis to...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/coast-to-coast-for-bonds.html

Lifted this from the comments in the LA Land blog of the LA Times. Thanks to Charles Wilson: THE FIVE STAGES OF REAL ESTATE GRIEF DENIAL: "Don't listen to those doom and gloomers. They're nothi...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/5-stages-of-real-estage-grief.html

Another day in the bond market like yesterday, and the Fed will cut rates on Friday. Short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates are moving in opposite directions. When that happens, i...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/deadly-diversion.html

Apparently Barry Bonds and Angelo Mazillo have the same spin doctor. Those close to Bonds are supposed to have told the press that he took steroids to keep up with home-run slugger Mark McGwire, ...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/barry-bonds-defense.html

I got into an on-line argument the yesterday with a guy who said the Case/Shiller numbers and the OFEO numbers were inconsistent, so you should ignore both. I couldn't believe the guy, an investm...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/observed-price-movements-buying-high.html

Haven't you wondered how the market could keep going up for four straight years, with barely a correction? No, you haven't. I understand, you've just been riding it. No concern about risk. Heck, ...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/genie-is-out-of-bottle.html

You gotta love the news that comes out late Friday or early Saturday on Labor Day weekend. Always something interesting. Usually something being swept under the rug. How about Citigroup (C) quie...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/love-that-late-news.html

The credit crisis has produced some amazing possibilities to take some hedged risk. We're talking about buying some of the headline losers, with the hope they'll be slightly higher at January exp...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/options-tuesday-buywrite-bonanza.html

Look for a big rally on Friday, after Bernanke practically tells the market he's going to cut rates on Sept. 18. That should bring long-term debt vehicles and short-term debt vehicles back in lin...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/pep-rally-in-gym-this-friday.html

Implied Risk data works -- helps people make more money and lose less -- because the theories surrounding the Normal Curve are perfect for investors who like to buy issues low and sell them high....

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/implied-risk-and-three-of-our-favorite.html

This week in From the Archives we present Chapter 4 in the Yates Guide to Options Investing (1994): The Missing Link -- Sector Analysis, written by Jim Yates. When most investors think about por...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/from-archives-missing-line-sector_24.html

Our leaders think you're too stupid to stop sticking your hand in the fire. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), chairman of the Senate banking committee, is pushing the Fed to tighten what he terms predat...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/america-youre-stupid.html

The DYR Phase Chart has fallen to +24 in Zone 2. Most of the broad-based indexes have eased back up into Zone 3. The financials are leading the bounce. Bank indexes are among the strongest in the...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/zone-2.html

This week in From the Archives we present Chapter 4 in the Yates Guide to Options Investing (1994): The Missing Link -- Sector Analysis, written by Jim Yates. When most investors think about por...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/from-archives-missing-line-sector.html

The Fed cut the discount rate this morning, but why? How is a 1/2-point reduction in the rate that banks pay for overnight loans going to help? You think it's time to borrow some money and take s...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/shades-of-29.html

You gotta love the Merrill analyst who took Countrywide (CFC) to a sell from a buy he issued two days earlier. Hopefully the psychological scars he absorbs from becoming an industry laughingstock...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/told-you-so.html

On Wednesdays, we re-publish columns written by the inventor of Implied Risk, Jim Yates. Today's article in From the Archives was originally published on April 25, 1988. Prior to the creation of...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/from-arhives-straddle-key-to.html

Now that option implied volatility has soared, we can talk about selling puts. Not naked puts, but cash-secured puts. You cash-secure your puts by putting aside the cash you would have to pay to ...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/option-tuesday-cash-secured-puts.html

We wrote about the opportunity to make money on steel-stock puts about two months ago. While the Steele (STQ) index has pulled back about 10%, there is a lot of excess ready to be squeezed out. A...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/steel-steal.html

On a day when the markets got whacked, homebuilders, regional banks and REITs were strong on a relative basis. Techs and the oils were the hardest hit on Thursday. That tells you they were dumpin...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/shakeout-begins.html

Each Wednesday we'll reach back into our 25-year archive of commentary by our founder, Jim Yates. Here's an excerpt from 1994's The Yates Guide to Profitable Options Investing: The Zone system i...

http://impliedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/from-archives-zone-system.html