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S&P 500 Election Year 2024 vs. 1968 & 2012
With all the college protests in the news it brings comparisons of 1968 to mind. 2024’s Big Election Year Q1 gains have already put the 2012 analog in my sights. Both were election years with s...
May’s First Trading Day: S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Higher 69.2% of the Time
The first trading day of May has had a bullish history over the past 26 years. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all averaged around 0.4% on the day. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have the best track rec...
May Almanac: Historically Poor in Election Years
May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we once called the “May/June disaster area.” Fro...
Big Election Year Q1s Dip April-May Before Gains Last 7 Months
2024’s great start was the third best Election Year Q1 since 1950. Looks like we’re tracking Top Q1 Election Years more pronounced April-May dip. Chop continues in July and August and these y...
Election Year Drawdowns Happen – S&P 500 Average Pullback 13% since 1952
After five straight months of gains and numerous new all-time highs, recent weakness and the corresponding spike in volatility seem unfamiliar. Despite lingering inflation and escalating geopolit...
April 2 Seasonal MACD Signal Triggered Right on Time
We issued our Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500 to newsletter subscribers on April 2 when slower moving MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both turned negat...
April Monthly Option Expiration Week - DJIA Up 33 of Last 42
April’s monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board with respectable gains on the last day of the week, the entire week, and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 hav...
Best Six Months Rally Respite Underway April Tracks Election Year Seasonality
It’s been a banner “Best Six Months (BSM)” (November-April) for the Dow and S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through our April 2, 2024 Seasonal MACD Sell Signa...
April Ends Best Six Months #1 DJIA
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. April is #1 DJIA month by average performance since 1950, 2nd best S&P 500 month and 4th best NASDAQ (since 1971)....
Super Boom Spring Break Easter Sale!
Few at Dow 10,000 believed me in May 2010 when I forecasted a 500+% market rise that would put DJIA at 38,820 by the year 2025 in my Almanac Investor Newsletter. My 2011 book Super Boom took a de...
Good Friday Boosts End Q1 But Weakens Q2 Start
Over the past 34 years since 1990 the last trading day of Q1 has been plagued by end-of-quarter portfolio restructuring. DJIA is down 21 of 34 with an average loss of –0.24%. S&P is down 19 of ...
Market Historically Strong Ahead of Good Friday
Good Friday is the one NYSE holiday with a clear positive bias before and negativity the day after (Stock Trader’s Almanac 2024, page 100). DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 all have soli...
5-Month Streak Looks Like A Secular Bull Market
Not only is it bullish for April and the rest of the year. When November, December, January, February and March are up stocks have been in a secular bull market that extended to at least the next...
Best Six Months Ends in April
AFTER 5 MONTHS OF SOLID GAINS, ARE MARKETS READY FOR A PAUSE? BULLISH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE SITTING PRESIDENT PATTERN FLATTENS OUT THE MID-FEBRUARY TO LATE-MARCH SEASONAL RETREAT CONSIDERABLY WITHO...
Inflation Projection No Rate Cut Soon
Until PCE is sustained at or below 2% they are not likely to cut. Our PCE projection chart reveals the Fed is not likely to be in a rush. They are slow to cut rates & only move quickly when a rea...
Typical Ides of March Low
First half of March trading has been mostly in line with its seasonal pattern over the last 21 years. There has been plenty of chop with S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 drifting higher while DJI...
Ides, Schmides – March Drawdowns <2% Rather Bullish
While our 2024 outlook has remained decidedly bullish since our December “2024 FORECAST: MORE NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS ANTICIPATED ,” we’ve warned to “Beware the Ides of March.” That this ove...
March Quarterly Options Expiration Week: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Up 12 of Last 16
March Quarterly Option Expiration Weeks have been quite bullish. S&P 500 has been up 27 times in the last 41 years while NASDAQ has advanced 25 times. More recently, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have both ...
Typical March Performance: Second Half Better
Over the recent 21 years March has been a decent performing month for the market. Average gains over the period range from a low of 0.78% by DJIA to a respectable 1.40% by NASDAQ. March typically...
Ex-2020 S&P 500 Flatter Election Year March
But after 4 months of solid gains the market is poised for a modest pullback of maybe 3-6%. S&P 500 SUPPORT: 4800 OLD ATH.