Lowy Institute for International Policy | Nuclear Weapons
Overview Nuclear weapons remain an enduring security issue for
Australia and its region. Nuclear arsenals in the Indo-Pacific region
are growing, and their delivery methods and supporting systems are
becoming more technologically advanced. In addition, several nuclear
powers are transitioning from purely land-and air-based strategic
forces to a sea-based nuclear deterrent, further complicating a
radically changing security environment. Nuclear Weapons in the
Indo-Pacific As strategic relations in the Indo-Pacific change, due to
the rise of China and the US pivot to Asia, nuclear weapons will be a
subtext to the changing strategic dynamic. Six of the nine countries
that possess nuclear weapons are in the Indo-Pacific region. The
United States, China, India, Pakistan, Russia and North Korea are all
modernising or enlarging their nuclear arsenals to some degree, making
nuclear weapons an important area of study regarding strategic
stability in the Indo-Pacific. The nuclear deterrence relationship
between China and the United States is especially important. As China
becomes increasingly assertive in the East and South China Seas, and
the United States continues its rebalance to Asia, nuclear weapons
will become a more visible element to this strategic dynamic. For
instance, recent assessments suggest that China will be ready to
conduct its first nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN)
deterrence patrols at the end of 2014. Another major nuclear
deterrence relationship in the region is between India and Pakistan.
After their partition in 1947 and the several wars and conflicts that
followed, nuclear weapons were introduced into the Indian/Pakistani
equation in 1974 with India’s first successful nuclear weapons test.
Armed confrontation and even nuclear warfare became a possibility in
South Asia when in 1998 India and Pakistan conducted a series of
nuclear tests among heightened tensions. Both sides have since
refrained from further nuclear tests, but the introduction of nuclear
munitions in their arsenals has raised the possibility of their use in
a major confrontation. North Korea North Korea or the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is the fifth and least advanced
nuclear weapon state in the Indo-Pacific region. It poses a
considerable threat to regional stability due to its pursuit of
higher-yield and more advanced nuclear warheads and missile delivery
systems. North Korea withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
in 2003 after a series of failed international negotiations over the
status of its nuclear program. Its first nuclear detonation occurred
in 2006 and it has since conducted further tests in 2009 and 2013. A
serious source of regional instability is the regime’s continued
testing of long-and short-range missile delivery systems, usually in
the Sea of Japan. In April 2013, North Korea’s failed launch of a
satellite, condemned by many in the international community as the
testing of a long-range missile, sparked war fears throughout the
region. The crisis saw an unprecedented escalation in rhetoric from
North Korea, the temporary closure of Korean joint venture
manufacturing facilities, and the United States conducting a show of
force with B-2 strategic stealth bombers. SSBN Programs and Strategic
Stability A recent development in nuclear security in the Indo-Pacific
is the growing numbers of SSBNs. SSBNs are widely considered the most
advanced and invulnerable nuclear delivery platform in the nuclear
triad, but they have the potential to be destabilising in an
international crisis situation. Both China and India are making
advances to join the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom and
France as operators of SSBNs. These platforms afford a mobile and
sea-based deterrent that provides an assured retaliatory ‘second
strike’ in the event of a nuclear attack on home territory. While
SSBNs can be strategically stabilising in terms of nuclear deterrence
generally, in a crisis situation they can contribute to crisis
escalation and destabilisation. What the Lowy Institute does The Lowy
Institute has a strong record of nuclear security research, from
disarmament, non-proliferation, arms control and strategic stability
through to nuclear energy and uranium export policy. This has largely
been conducted through the International Security Program under the
banner of the Nuclear Policy Centre, which has been supported by the
Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. The
Institute was also an Associated Research Centre for the International
Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament and was
commissioned to prepare its original concept paper. Currently, the
main focus of nuclear security research is on nuclear stability in the
Indo-Pacific amid a changing regional strategic architecture. This
research is generously supported by the John D. and Catherine T.
MacArthur Foundation.